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Thank you MSNBC

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So I get home yesterday and nobody else was there. I turn on MSBNC during Hardball with Chris Matthews. I continue to have on the TV while All-In with Chris Hayes is broadcast and of course, The Rachel Maddow Show* after that. All three of them had the Trump Campaign kick-off event (otherwise known as his 65th rally since winning the electoral college) in the lower right corner of the screen. All three were ignoring it.

At one point, Chris Hayes said that the rally is going on and “we are monitoring it for news.” At no point did they cut away. Neither did Rachel.

I wanted to say Thank You to MSNBC for that decision. It’s hard enough to listen to Trump talk when he is trying to be president. It’s much more nauseating when he is leading a lie-o-rama at his rallys. The way he feeds the audience red meat and how they devour it and kick and yell and demand death to all political opponents and cruelty to people who aren’t white is simply too much to handle.  Today, the Washington Post has documented here and here and here the exaggerations, distortions, false attribution and straight out lies of Trump.

So the truth is out there….I just didn’t have to watch it live.

Again, thank you MSNBC.

*[begin rant: I hate that she calls it a “show.” How is news now a show? I mean, yes, it is. But do we have to reinforce the idea that news = entertainment? /end rant]


F U sick and poor. I got mine.

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This is the headline at the Huffington Post today:

Obamacare Had Another Bad Day In Court. That’s Pretty Alarming.”

The ACA is on the ropes (again) and this time it looks like a knock out punch is moments away. Millions of people don’t even realize they will wake up without insurance to cover their doctor appointment that is already on the calendar. The Trump Administration is not defending the ACA in court...because they want it gone. Make no mistake, if the court invalidates the law, Republican lawmakers will celebrate with champagne. They will smile and laugh and declare victory.

And millions of people will remain sick. Some will die. And these lawmakers and judges will not care.

Perhaps I shouldn’t care. I have a corporate provided health insurance plan that is, fairly or not, pretty friggin’ good. My wife, my two kids, myself...we are all covered and get to see whichever doctor, therapist, we want when we want for whatever reason we want. Perhaps I should remain indifferent to the plight of the poor and their families. Why should I care?

But I do.

Because I understand that the health of my fellow countrymen affects my health and my prosperity. A healthy population can work. Be productive. A sick population cannot.  One would think that Republicans would want (and work for) things that make the stock market go up. One would be wrong.

 

"Why do we work?"

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[Taking a much needed break from political news….]

Nearly twenty-two years ago, my new wife, as a mental health therapist (an intern at the time) for children, successfully counseled a young teen away from committing suicide. I remember the conversation, because I worked in the finance department of Intel Corporation in Silicon Valley at the time. On that very same day, I had finally figured out how to integrate various internal data streams to automatically compile in an Excel spreadsheet. I was feeling quite proud. But once she told me of her success earlier that day, a success that literally saved a life, I felt small and inconsequential. If something happened to me, Intel would have continued. I needed more from my career than being able to reconcile a spreadsheet for a living. This began a five year exploration of what I want to do when I grow up.
 

I switched careers at the age of 35. I became a Financial Advisor for Morgan Stanley. This career combined two passions of mine: an interest in finance and investments as well as the ability to materially help people in their lives. The professional relationship between a financial advisor and his/her client is quite intimate. People tell you more about their lives, relationships, health, dreams, fears, etc, than nearly anybody else on the planet that doesn’t also share their last name. And if you do your job right, it is also intrinsically rewarding. You can see the good you do for others and it often warms your heart.

Today I had in my office an 83 year old woman and her 85 year old husband. They have been my clients for at least 12 years but I had distantly known them for more than twice that through our affiliation with our synagogue. About a week ago, they asked for an appointment but wouldn’t say why. We recently had an account review, so that couldn’t be it. So instead of preparing for the meeting, I merely invited them into my office and asked, “What brings you in today?”

I'd hate to go to the college that answers these questions "correctly."

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I don’t often tread over to redstate.com, but I did today for some inexplicable reason. There, on their front page (I won’t link to it...don’t need to give them the clicks, thankyouverymuch), there was an article written by Mike Adams, published today, titled “Questions for College Preview Day”

Given that my son is now a college freshman and my daughter is a junior, and the recency of having gone through the whole application process is still fresh in my mind, I read Mr. Adam’s piece.

Now, I do understand that there is a different worldview promulgated over there at Redstate, but what I don’t think I totally understood was their antipathy towards higher education.  Here are the 14 questions he believes every prospective college student should ask professors and administrators so that they “know what they are getting into.”

  1. Does this university protect free speech?
  2. If your answer to the previous question is “yes” then can you tell me whether the Foundation for Individual Rights in Education (www.TheFIRE.org) has agreed and thus given the university a green light rating signifying that it has no policies abridging free expression?
  3. Does this university respect due process?
  4. If your answer to the previous question is “yes” then can you tell me whether the university has a specific policy allowing students legal representation in suspension and expulsion hearings?
  5. Has this university ever been successfully sued for violating the First Amendment?
  6. Has this university ever been successfully sued for falsely convicting a student of a crime, including, but not limited to, sexual assault?
  7. Does this university promote diversity?
  8. If your answer to the previous question is “yes” then can you provide me the names of some conservative professors teaching in your department?
  9. Could you also provide the names of some Christian professors teaching in your department?
  10. What is the average starting salary of students who graduate with a degree from your department?
  11. What is the average federal loan debt of students who graduate with a degree from your department?
  12. Would you recommend that your own son or daughter attend this university?
  13. Would you recommend that your own son or daughter pursue a major offered by your department?
  14. If you answered, “yes” to either of the two previous questions then would you agree to co-sign on your child’s student loan?

Please note, that I intended to read his list with an open mind, but by the time I got to question #3, I suspected that this wasn’t an honest list. And when I hit #9, I lost my lid. Indeed, in his continued essay, Mr. Adams gives away the game when he writes:

Things were bad enough when parents used to save up money in order to send their kids to college. When they did so they often ended up spending more on each child’s college education than anything they purchased in their lives – with the sole exception being their home purchase. Yet they found that they were punished for their investment. Their children would often leave church and rebel against their parents after four years with their leftist professors. Indeed, many parents would find that the greatest cost of their children’s education was seeing them come to hate everything their parents had taught them – and, indeed, sometimes coming to hate their parents, too.
 

bolding mine.

He goes on to tell you that it’s the Federal Government’s fault for tempting children into going to college by offering grants and loans. 

We could talk all day about the questions, and I do hope there are comments made below that do just that, but I wanted to add my own comment that I think some folks on the Right are too far gone to try to bring back into the fold. Free thinking = liberal ideas = death of religion and comity. This man is having trouble letting go of his son or daughter because he fears they will be indoctrinated into hating him.

Perhaps he has a point. Perhaps his ideas are worth running away from. I know my nephew hated that his dad was an ultra-conservative. It caused friction years ago that exist to this day. But poisoning the idea that going to college is good for you and good for society is a bridge too far. How is the United State to dig itself out of a continuing moral and technical slide if we can’t educate our children to advance human knowledge?

Your thoughts on the questions?

Comic Relief: Enter because you need the laugh

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It’s hard to overstate how upset I got while watching the Corey Lewandowski hearings on Tuesday. I watched the first hour live and had to turn it off because my hands were shaking and I could no longer concentrate. The display of inherent contempt was beyond the pale. The crudeness. The vulgarity. The incivility. The daring. The insults. The snobbery. The mendacity. The sheer madness of the whole spectacle. It was an assault on our collective understanding of what it means to be an American and to respect our constitution and institutions. I was going to write a diary of my experiences and thoughts for therapeutic reasons, but I couldn’t write. It got so bad, hours later, I had to have my wife talk me down off the ledge. For me, it was that bad.

My wife recommended a diversion. So instead of harping on what’s wrong with the world, just for a moment, I wanted to laugh. And as fate would have it, I happened upon this clip from John Mulaney which (for me) hit the nail right on the head. So I will share it with you. I hope you laugh. I’ve now seen it 5 times and it’s spot on perfect political comedy.

Given the intensity of the diaries and stories here on DailyKos, if this diary goes over well, I will publish a “comic relief” diary once a week (or so). I swear, it’s therapeutic. We need to laugh sometimes. And we need to do it together.

Feel free to add a comic strip or clip of your favorite below. 

The clip is 4:10 in length.

Biden and the DNC (and most Democrats) are so bad at this

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In May of 2011, novelist Barry Eisler published a short read primer on how those on the political left suck at communication skills. It’s only 42 pages and we could all use the advice about now. 

On this site, we often succumb to making ourselves feel better when we highlight “gotcha” moments, like when someone puts up a diary saying “Republican Politician does something, the internet responds”, or like Jon Stewart before, we dig up old clips where a Republican is taking the exact opposite position he took years ago because it’s politically convenient today.

None of these things moves the needle.

Joe Biden, “the front-runner” is being slaughtered EVERY SINGLE DAY for being corrupt. The Republicans, once again, are setting the narrative. And it’s having an impact. He is sliding in the polls and his fundraising is at best lackluster for someone who is supposed to be leading the pack. And what is worse, he is terrible at defending himself and the DNC is doing nothing (NOTHING!) to help either. In this fashion, Trump is successfully branding his opponents as the Do Nothing Democrats. He’s right.

Here’s what we know (from Eisler’s essay):

  • Whoever chooses the topics wins the argument
  • To fight back, you need to fight back by leaning in, not back
  • Messaging matters
  • Frame the pitch as an attack
  • Imagery and short sentences
  • Use strong labels that are memorable and repeatable

(seriously, just read it)

Biden and his family need to sue Trump. They need to use language like “the corrupt President”, “liar,”“hypocrite”, etc.

We all need to call on the press, whenever reporting on this issue, to introduce the Trump clips as “here is the president again touting the debunked claim….” or something even stronger.

I am so sick of this, people. We are not winning just because an impeachment inquiry has been opened up. They are fighting back dirty because that’s the only thing they know. And we are not equipped to fight dirty. Can we please avoid snatching a defeat from the hands of victory? We have him dead to rights. We need to squash this beast into oblivion. We need a full frontal attack. And we need it now.

Can she hold off until after the State of the Union

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A bit of a drive by diary, but I was just thinking…

We know that Trump is going slowly (or is it quickly) insane because Speaker Pelosi is holding up the transmission of the impeachment articles to the Senate. It’s making him “squirm” apparently.

How long can she hold these things is anybody’s guess. But I would fairly assume that if by the time of the State of the Union (February 4, 2020), he will self destruct on live tv. Can the Democrats stage some kind of live protest during that event?

It just seems an opportune moment...not to be missed.

 

Increasing Minimum Wage...It Can Be Done

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I was on the Mountain View, California City Council for 4 years (I decided not to run for re-election after one term). In my first year, 2015, we voted to increase the minimum wage and make it $15/hour by 2018 and adjust it to inflation after that.

As you can see from the image above, the minimum wage in my hometown may be the highest in the country. If you have evidence of it being higher somewhere else, I’d certainly like to know!

We made it simple: If you are employed in Mountain View, that’s the least amount you will make. Even waiters and waitresses get that amount.

You can read more about it here.

I said it at the time and it bears repeating. When you’re an elected official, some votes are simply better than others. This was one of my favorites. All you need is the courage to do what is right. When I was running for office,  one of the voters came up to me and said, “100% of my income goes to rent.” I decided she and many others needed help. Here in Silicon Valley, as in so many other communities, wages simply haven’t kept pace with the cost of living.

Happy to have done my part.


Does Your State Require a Notary to Vote?

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I’m from California and have lived in California for most of my life (except for 3 years in Indiana for graduate school and work in the early 90’s). I am accustomed to easy voting and a state that continually strives to make it easier.

My son, however, is a freshman at Washington University in St. Louis. He thought his vote would be more important in Missouri, so he registered to vote and will be voting in his first election (he’s 18) soon. Because he will be home for Spring Break when the election is happening, he registered to vote absentee. Well he just texted me a photo of the envelope, and it….well, see it for yourself:

20200227_101653.jpg

Do you see where it says, “Notary Seal” and underneath, highlighted in yellow, it says “if applicable”  ?

Nowhere on the ballot or on the envelope does it spell out what scenario you must satisfy in order to require a notary. So I called the Missouri Secretary of State’s office and was told that if you’re disabled or an active duty military personnel, you are exempt from requiring a notary. I asked her to show me on their website where it says this. She directed me through a few web pages, where it finally says, at the very bottom of the page
 

This identification requirement, as well as the notary requirement for absentee ballots, does not apply to overseas voters, those on active military duty or members of their immediate family living with them or voters who are permanently disabled and their caregivers.

 So now my son has to go find a notary, pay a fee if necessary, and waste his time.

This smells like a poll tax to me, in time and possibly money. It also seems terribly unnecessary. How many states require a notary for an absentee ballot? Red states...always trying to suppress the vote.

Just writing this diary has calmed me down, but seriously, I’m furious.

Breaking: Sanders and Warren in talks

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This just in from the Washington Post

Top surrogates and allies of Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders are discussing ways for their two camps to unite and push a common liberal agenda, with the expectation that Warren is likely to leave the presidential campaign soon, according to two people familiar with the talks.

I was kinda hoping she’d team up with Biden, but this makes more ideological sense.

Why Biden just got $250 from me

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Kamala Harris was my first choice.

Pete Buttigieg was my second.

Joe Biden is my third. Third time’s a charm.

A dear friend of mine is a hardcore Bernie fan and earlier today posted on Facebook his dismay that people are choosing Biden over Sanders. His post simply said:

I don’t get it. If Democrats wanted a do-over this much, why didn’t they just renominate Clinton?

The Facebook conversation largely ignored the veiled disgust at Biden as a Hillary supplicant, as people either defended one person or the other. Here is what I wrote. I thought it was worth sharing, as I know the DKos community is filled with passionate Bernie supporters. I submit this with all the humility I can. I certainly don’t want to start an online flame war. It’s just my opinion. YMMV.

Bernie is absolutely right about nearly every topic (if not every) he brings up. Both from what he identifies as what is wrong as well as the prescription to fix it. I think you’re attracted to that. I admit, it would be nice to have a national/governmental do over. The progressive side of me craves it.

What I think is missing [friend’s name], from your perspective, is how some voters *feel* when they listen to him speak. You can be right about something, but dogmatic. Step out of his aura for a moment. You may then see that people with health care issues (my wife for example) are terrified that the system they rely on would be completely upended. That level of uncertainty is terrifying.

For me, I actually HATE the way he yells and infrequently smiles. I *feel* as if he’s talking down to me. Like if I don’t vote for him, I’m a bad guy. And I further HATE the way he uses the word “establishment” for two reasons. Firstly, it immediately creates a social wedge. If I’m not following you, I’m establishment, used intentionally as a pejorative. Fuck that. Secondly, it’s hypocritical. He is as establishment as Joe Biden or Hillary Clinton. Marianne Williamson wasn’t establishment. Pete Buttigieg wasn’t establishment. Bernie is.

Lastly, I will posit that in an era where we are (well, most of us) simply exhausted, we can’t do a “revolution.” We need a return to normalcy. We need to stop being gaslit and made to feel badly. Bernie yelling at me makes me feel bad, just like Trump. And that might be the key consideration at the end of the day this [election] cycle. Bernie is comparable to Trump in his intransigence. Biden makes me feel comfortable. I do not think I’m alone in that feeling.

I will add, especially after the speech Bernie gave today...about the questions he will be asking of Joe at the Sunday debate, is that he is instrumental in turning the Democratic Party more to the left. And that is a good thing.

I will confidently vote for Joe. And be more so when he picks a woman to his VP.

And so, for the first time this year, I have opened up my wallet and donated $250 to the Joe Biden for President committee. 

Pandemic - A Poem

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To warm your heart and see the beauty and seize the opportunity.

To bring us together.

 

Pandemic 
–Lynn Ungar  (March 11, 2020)
 

What if you thought of it
as the Jews consider the Sabbath —
the most sacred of times?
Cease from travel.
Cease from buying and selling.
Give up, just for now,
on trying to make the world
different than it is.
Sing. Pray. Touch only those
to whom you commit your life.
Center down.

And when your body has become still,
reach out with your heart.
Know that we are connected
in ways that are terrifying and beautiful.
(You could hardly deny it now.)
Know that our lives
are in one another’s hands.
(Surely, that has come clear.)
Do not reach out your hands.
Reach out your heart.
Reach out your words.
Reach out all the tendrils
of compassion that move, invisibly,
where we cannot touch.

Promise this world your love –
for better or for worse,
in sickness and in health,
so long as we all shall live.

Breaking: SF Bay Area Counties: "Shelter in Place"

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From the SF Chronicle

Six Bay Area counties are expected to announce a “shelter in place” order for all residents on Monday, directing everyone to stay inside their homes and away from others as much as possible for the next three weeks as public health officials desperately try to curb the rapid spread of coronavirus across the region.

County authorities were expected to announce the move at 1 p.m. and gave a draft of the order to media outlets to prepare. The Chronicle is reporting the story after a television station published the news early.

The directive begins at 12:01 a.m. Tuesday and involves San Francisco, Santa Clara, San Mateo, Marin, Contra Costa and Alameda counties — a combined population of more than 6.7 million. It is to stay in place until at least April 7. Three other Bay Area counties — Sonoma, Solano and Napa — were not immediately included.

Let’s all be careful out there and take care of one another.

I posted this poem in another diary, but​​​​​​​ it’s worth repeating here:

 

Pandemic

What if you thought of it
as the Jews consider the Sabbath—
the most sacred of times?
Cease from travel.
Cease from buying and selling.
Give up, just for now,
on trying to make the world
different than it is.
Sing. Pray. Touch only those
to whom you commit your life.
Center down.

And when your body has become still,
reach out with your heart.
Know that we are connected
in ways that are terrifying and beautiful.
(You could hardly deny it now.)
Know that our lives
are in one another’s hands.
(Surely, that has come clear.)
Do not reach out your hands.
Reach out your heart.
Reach out your words.
Reach out all the tendrils
of compassion that move, invisibly,
where we cannot touch.

Promise this world your love–
for better or for worse,
in sickness and in health,
so long as we all shall live.

–Lynn Ungar 3/11/20

Biden, Democrats & the rapidly changing Prediction Markets

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Put your money where your mouth is, or so goes the saying. If you believe Biden will win the Presidential Election in 2020, for example, why don’t you put money on it?

It turns out that thousands of people do just that. One of the premier markets for predicting outcomes, beyond the polls and aggregation sites (like fivethirtyeight.com) is PredictIt. It’s actually a fascinating site to keep your eye on, if for no other reason to be informed and come up with your own analysis.

Since Covid-19 has run the course of a concern, to an outbreak, to an epidemic, to finally a pandemic, the markets have significantly changed. The catalyst, I believe, is the otherwise world wide recognition that the United States’ government is being run by a buffoon. So let’s look at the charts.

In this graph, we see the last 90 days of Trump vs Biden. At the moment of this writing, Biden is at $.48 vs Trump’s $.44. Not huge confidence, but the upward trend is fairly amazing. Clearly, most of this had to do with the South Carolina results (and all the subsequent primaries), but Trump’s decline has more to do with his response to Covid-19.

BidenVTrump.JPG

This chart highlights current thinking (in the last 90 days) on whether Trump will win the popular vote. Anything below $.50 in my view predicts a very poor outlook.

TrumpPopularVote.JPG

Lastly, this graph highlights which party is predicted to win the Presidency. As I type, the Democratic Party is at $.56 and the Republican $.45 (I believe the chart rendering is slightly behind the market “tickers.”

Partytowinelection.JPG

There are many wonderful charts at PredictIt. Go take a look. You can see that there is a 77% chance of a US recession. Or that Kamala Harris is beating Klobuchar by 1% for VP at the moment. Or that there is only a 31% chance Sanders will drop out by March 20th.

Feel free to share more predictions in the comments. 

Be careful out there everyone. Let’s take care of ourselves … and each other.

That f*&!ng Asterisk.

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I’m sitting here in my home “office” (really a bedroom we have with desks in it) looking out the window at the wind blowing the rain off the leaves of the tree just outside my window. I am melancholy.
   What I want to do is leave my house and go to a public place and hang out with people I don’t know. Have a glass of whiskey while the conversations around me fall across my ears, a cacophony of noise that I pay little attention to, but refills my cup of social necessities. I want to hide from the day of frustrations one encounters when working remotely: technology that is close to working well, but not quite. There’s always a glitch. But when you work remotely, you’re also head of Information Technology. I’m not equipped for that, but I make do. The markets haven’t been kind lately. My clients are wonderful people who understand what is happening at the exact same time where they don’t. I mean, we’re living through a plague. What kind of biblical bullshit is this? Can we really understand it? Do we want to?
   Tempers are short these days. People are pleasant enough, so that’s ok, but the slightest thing can set them off. I have one client who is upset that a rate she wanted for a mortgage refinance wasn’t available. She called 2 weeks ago. The rate was given at that time, with the caveat that nothing is locked until the application is taken. 15 days go by, and now she wants to go forward, and the rates have changed. She wants me to magically reduce them. Perhaps the markets will do it for me, but I simply don’t have that kind of control. She’s “disappointed” in the process. Yeah, the process. It gets us every time.
   I have another client who has engaged in risky trading. I mean super duper hyper risky behavior. He’s made quite a bit of money while everybody else loses. Good for him. However, as what always happens when people engage in risky behavior with only positive results, they go in for even riskier behavior. My firm put the brakes on him. If things go south, and they eventually will (for him), he may never financially recover. The manager and compliance people no longer wish to take on the risk of signing off on his trades. Take your business elsewhere, they say, never mind the 10 year relationship he and I have had. Man, I play poker with his kids, go to his birthday parties, break bread and drink wine with our spouses in a foursome. Poof. It’s gone.
   Another client writes me a nastygram. “I told you to get out of the market!” he screams to me over an email. He told me that in December of 2018. I followed his instructions and did what he asked. On the same day. Only 5 months later, after selling low, he now wants back in. Again I honor his request, and he buys back high. His recent recognition of being invested in the market enrages him. He conveniently forgot the conversations we had about him getting back in, and his affirmative request to do so. He later confirms he never looks at his statements, the transaction confirmations, and all the other communications he receives. He just wants to buy a house, and now he can’t, he says. (he can). He threatens legal action, which of course gets the attention of my firm. We have contemporaneous notes, phone records, etc. He will lose any argument he tries to throw at us, but I feel bad for the guy. He’s losing his mind. It’s just sad.
   Today, I took a journey in what must have looked like full HazMat gear into a grocery store. I went at 1:00pm (ish). The store was very well stocked for most things. It was refreshing. But I couldn’t get garlic. Actually, I also couldn’t get flour, a specialized type of squash (it was on the list, I can’t remember what it was, but they didn’t have it), and a couple other things. All of it was no big deal, but the garlic really jarred me. Why is it hard to get garlic? The woman at the cash register looked defeated. She tried to be kind (she succeeded, as far as I was concerned), but she looked like she wanted to be anywhere else. Who could blame her. She’s working in a petri dish.
   One the way home, I heard on the radio the first child in the US died of Covid-19. I wanted to cry. Well there goes the hope that this doesn’t impact the young’uns. I don’t know if the boy had health issues. I guess that matters, because we want him to have had health issues, right? We *need* that, otherwise the horror that we are in gets worse. Regardless, he’s dead, and we know he is unique only because he was first. And of course the political news came on. I changed the channel to a comedy station. George Carlin was on. That guy is just as funny now as he ever was. Perfection.
   We are all allowed to be anxious, nervous, sad, and depressed once in a while. I don’t plan to stay this way. Today was just a rough day. Oh yeah, a racquetball injury to my right knee is taking much longer to heal than expected. I’m not playing anymore, perhaps that’s why I’m so cranky. But that is giving it a chance to repair itself. Silver linings, you know? To be fair, it’s quite lovely having my kids back in the house, sequestered from returning to college. The amount of laughter coming from our kitchen table every night is five-fold what it was ‘back in the day’ when they lived here full time. I think it’s safe to say, we’re living well…with an asterisk. That fucking asterisk.


It's Not an April Fool's joke this year

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Every year on April 1st, I send a “joke” email to my U2 fanclub mailing list. This year, I sent the following, which is decidedly NOT a joke. I simply didn’t have it in me. I wrote it this morning and sent it moments ago. I thought I’d cross reference it here, for those who like reading personal posts from DKos community members.

===============================

Friday the 13th was the last day I worked from my desk at my office. I should have known it would be a dark day indeed. I live in Santa Clara County, one of six counties that surround the San Francisco Bay. We were the first large scale area in the United States to have an official “Shelter in Place” order, which went live on Tuesday March 17. These restrictions affected over seven million residents and told us we had to stay home.

Many of those reading this note are now doing the same thing. How’s it going? How are you holding up?

In my family, I now have two adult children. My daughter is 21 and in her third year in college. She lives in Boston. My son, who is 18 started his first year in college last August in St. Louis. Both are home. My son didn’t find out he couldn’t return to college until after he was here for Spring Break and so only brought a carry on suitcase with him. We do laundry frequently. We are told his belongings will be sent to him at “some point in the future.” They both do their classes from their laptops, as I do my work from a PC in a bedroom we’ve converted into a home office. It’s not so bad, but you don’t get the interaction from your colleagues when you’re at home.

I remember years ago, in the late 90s, when I started on Wire, I used my work email address to communicate. I worked at Intel back then. Michael Cummins, who lived just down the street from me, said, “You have that cool email address.” Intel was the hot tech company in the mid to late 90s because of the Pentium chip. It was cool to work there, but that was a zillion years ago. Now I work for Morgan Stanley and I manage other people’s investments. If you haven’t been paying attention, you may not know that the first 3 months of 2020 was the worst quarter in the 135 years of the Dow. I am just now running my quarter-end reports and it’s bleak. As I look at the stock market as I type, it’s down another 4.5% today. The markets are a forward indicator, meaning it can tell us things about tomorrow that we may not be able to see today. Despite the massive amount of dollars the US Government is willing to throw into the economy, the market doesn’t care. It knows it was the wrong stimulus package focusing on the wrong things. I saw a meme today that showed dinosaurs watching the comet overhead that was about to hit earth and end their time in existence. One of the dinosaurs was quoted as saying, “Oh shit! The economy!!” We are run by buffoons.

Maybe because I’m a numbers guy, during each day, I frequently peek at the curve of the Covid-19 cases in the United States and around the world. Again, as I type, the US just went over 200,000 cases and 4,400 deaths. My wife has pulmonary challenges and she has ever since she was a little girl. We’re both 52 years old now and she is terrified. The Washington Post today published an article detailing how those who are dying are largely “people of any age with underlying medical conditions…” and then it goes on to cite examples and statistics. I don’t have the heart to show her the article. Besides, it only confirms what we intuitively know. Yesterday the kids went on a bike ride and we were home alone for the first time in 18 days. Her brave face melted away and we both broke down in tears at the reality that 3 of us may have to go on without her. She was preparing a list of where everything is and “open items” for me to carry on…just in case. We’re doing everything we can to protect her. I pray it’s enough. I read a report of a woman, about 10 years younger, who was intubated. Her family wasn’t able to be with her as she died. Her last words to her children were sent in a text message.

It’s hard to be positive right now when everything is upside down, inside out, and basically skewed beyond recognition. And I’m sorry to bring heaviness to the list. I tried using U2 as my relief. I saw and heard Bono’s attempt at capturing the moment with his new song. I’m not sure who was recording that video, but did we really need to be an inch from his nose? His voice sounded terrible, but it was wonderful to hear it anyway. I didn’t realize that it was updated a few days later with Jennifer Hudson and will.i.am. and Yoshiki. That version is much better. A little hope. A little relief. A little U2.

I don’t have a joke for you on this April 1st. I just wanted to be heard.

I love you all.

Bono told us to.

He sang “Let your love be known.”

 

These are some dumbs#!+ signs

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I was looking at some signs the nitwits in Michigan were walking around with as they protested the governor of the state, you know, caring for their well-being. Folks, our opposition are not Mensa members.

Just take the photo above. Look at it. Marvel at the inanity. The stupidity. What exactly are they protesting?

First, you're not a Nazi for trying to keep people safe. You're a Nazi for killing Jews and for being fascist and generally hating everyone who isn't in your tribe. I believe they are thinking of THEIR leader. Dear Leader, eh comrades?

Secondly, Pharaoh (dude, you spelled it wrong) lost everything valuable to him because of HIS actions. God was kind of pissed off for Pharaoh’s intransigence, and it took 10 separate events, culminating in the death of his son, to get him to keep his word (of releasing slaves). There is no wit in that sign. It literally makes no sense. Are you saying that staying at home, a home you (or in this case, your parents) presumably own is equivalent to being a slave? Are you being whipped and raped, and forced to work in the fields with no recourse should you dare speak your mind? Are you suggesting only the governor can free you after she loses a family member to Covid-19? WTactualF?

Then you have the pink sign (oh the irony of the color!). I think it's saying that if you're free, you don't have to be safe or a communist. I'm not 100% clear on that. But make up your minds, is the Governor of Michigan a Fascist or a Communist? One is social-left (communism) the other is social-right (fascism).

The Pothole sign is simply funny. But a loss of points for being funny with your right hand and a doofus with your left. And double minus points for pointing out potholes (which are unsafe) in one hand and in the other, saying you don't need safety. Oh, and is that woman wearing a pussyhat? These people are so friggin' confused!

Lastly, if only one person was Covid-19 infected, many of them will now be as well. And then they take it home and give it to everybody else. WINNING!


 

Essential.jpg
So is the letter T. Can we agree on that?

Elizabeth Warren's Epic Eyeroll

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Not much of a diary here. I really just wanted to show you this 2 second video.

I was sitting with my daughter last night (who is presently stuck-at-home because...college is closed) watching the Rachel Maddow Show. Typically she doesn’t watch with me, but her hero, Elizabeth Warren was on the show. We live in California, but she goes to college outside of Boston. I had just gotten through telling her that Warren is in former Senator Edward Kennedy’s old seat and he was called the Lion of the Senate. “Assuming she isn’t the Vice President,” I said, “wouldn’t it be cool if she got the nickname ‘Lioness of the Senate’ and became Senate Majority Leader next year?” My daughter wholeheartedly and enthusiastically agreed. “She is such the Lioness,” my daughter said, as only a 21 year old can say with complete authority. Seriously, my daughter LOVES Elizabeth Warren.

Anyway, Rachel begins the interview, and was teeing up a question in her very Rachel Maddow way (of taking a long time to do it) by first recognizing that the Senators were spread out, the Democratic senators weren’t even in the room, and the meeting witnesses were video-ing in remotely. Rachel got as far as “can the senators effectively do their job...” and that’s when the eye-roll came.

I was looking down at my emails when this happened. If it weren’t for my daughter and her uproarious laughter, I would have missed it. I rewound the video about 5 times because every time we did, we laughed a little harder. She just communicated so much about the present state of, well, everything. 

Enjoy the 2 second video. You can watch the whole TRMS clip here

Just keep hitting the rewind button on the lower left for maximum effect. If I knew how to make a gif from this, I would.

I feel good for the first time in a long time. Join me!

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At a U2 concert in the early 90s, they would display the words “Everything You Know is Wrong” on a screen for a few moments. Those words, especially the first time you ever see them, are unsettling. And for me, they have never left my consciousness.

I took yesterday off from the internet & news (sort of) to collect myself after a horrific news day on Monday. In fact, upon reflection, I’d say that Monday June 1, 2020 was likely the worst day of my life as an American citizen.

I remember when my family and I sat on the couch together in 2008 on election night. My kids were 9 and 7 at the time.  After living through the abuses of the Bush/Cheney era, relief was in sight. A new day. I sat on my couch … and cried. It was a moment in US history to be proud.

Eight years later on election night, I couldn’t cry because I was numb. What on earth had just happened? And how did it happen? There was nothing about Donald Trump that seemed or felt redeeming. There was nothing about him that was remarkable. It all felt like a lie and a joke and I couldn’t get over it. I’ll never forget standing (I couldn’t sit) and looking at my wife who sat with her eyes wide in fright and hands over her mouth for what seemed like hours. The news journalists were as stunned as we were. There wasn’t excitement in the land, there was trepidation. Like it or not, we had a new president, and it wasn’t the woman. It was the lying, bigoted, racist, misogynist, egotistical, narcissistic, and incompetent orange snake-oil salesman. I mean, if I could see all of that during the election campaign, couldn’t everybody? At that moment in time, it really did feel that everything I knew about human decency, elections, democracy, my fellow Americans, and so on, was wrong. I was unsettled. But it didn’t turn out that I was wrong about Trump. I was precisely right.

For the past 3 and a half years, I have watched him prove my point (about his character, his believes, his egocentrism, his hatred for fellow human beings, etc) on a daily basis. Tomes will be written about him for years, which coincidently is exactly what gives him an erection. He craves attention (needs it) no matter it criticism or praise. Critics give him strength. Sycophants give him validation. Every day he gives us something else to marvel about. Remember him ripping up the Iran nuclear deal? The Paris Climate Agreement? Crowd size? Lackeys put into jobs for which they are not qualified? His inaugural address which painted America as a dysopian post-apocalyptic hell-scape? Shithole countries? Stormy Daniels? Cronies? Impeachment as a victory? 20,000 documented lies? Calling Covid-19 a hoax? Calling John McCain a coward? The list is too long to continue.

It turns out, everything I know about Donald Trump is right.

And now all Americans – indeed, all the world – sees it too. Monday was the worst day I’ve ever had as an American. After the death of yet another black man at the hands (or knee) of a white cop, a cop who smirked into a video camera while administering the death sentence to a man who may have passed a bad $20 bill (didn’t think that was a crime worthy of death, but then again, I’m white.). But Trump had to come out from hiding underground after tweeting about vicious dogs and threatening the nation by declaring war on its citizens, he then attacked peaceful protestors exercising their first amendment rights of protest. This event was organized and ordered. It was pre-meditated. It was sickening. It was right out of central casting for what we romanticize how a dictator acts. Putting an exclamation point on his bravado, he walks across the emptied streets, surrounded by men with guns, all pointing at the unarmed, he holds up a bible which holds story after story of what happens to men like him. The irony of the moment lost on him because nuance and subtlety is something he’ll never understand.

Monday shook me to my core and I had to take Tuesday off from news and media to calm myself down.  In that day off, I remembered when I took my seat as Mayor of Mountain View on January 10, 2017 (ten days before Donald Trump was sworn in as president), I said the following:

… And in 10 days, Donald Trump will ascend to the most important job in the world. And that last one means something, I can’t shake that reality, try though that I may. We like to say that all politics are local, but our Federal Government controls much of what we can do locally. This body, in these chambers, has already heard testimony to the fears from some in our community regarding the language and promises he used during his campaign. It was divisive. It was ugly. And it fell far short of showcasing Americans at their finest.

Honestly, I have lost much sleep since that election. I keep turning it over in my mind, “How could we elect someone like that?” In his language, behavior, and deeds, he has proven himself the opposite of a national role model to our children. “What could I do?”, I kept thinking. Well, I just happen to be in a leadership position this year, and I intend to use it. I will focus my energies and hopefully the council’s as well, on working to protect and improve the quality of life for all Mountain Viewers.

It’s a sad day when local governments have to “protect” themselves from our Federal Government, but here we are. But today is a new day. I am waking up to the reality that Donald Trump is doomed. He has lost foreign respect and help. He is losing religious leaders for co-opting the church and a bible for a photo op. They see in him the blasphemous man he is. He is losing the military, for they know an illegal order when they see one. He is losing fellow Republicans, as elected officials lose their primaries and that spreads fear for those still clinging to his coattails. He is losing white voters. He has lost the old. He has lost the young. He is losing…everything. So much losing.

Yes, the damage he can (and will do) will continue to be an outrage, for he still holds the title of President. But his base has finally cracked as he has gone too far. He has failed. His presidency has been declared over by none other than George Will for heaven’s sake, not to mention dozens of other notable writers and thinkers. I will do my best to remain calm until the election. And I promise to work hard to make sure he loses that as well.  We all will. The fight is certainly not over. But popular vote loser, impeached president Donald Trump, Deceitful Don, Bunker Bitch, has lost.

I feel better now. I hope you can join me.

Trump is the "Confederacy's Second President"

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You got to hand it to the folks behind The Lincoln Project. They don’t mix words and they are vicious. They’re kind of like what we’ve always wanted Democratic groups to act like (I’ve always thought Team Blue doesn’t fight fire with fire, but that’s the subject of another diary). 

Yesterday they came out with this doozy of a tweet.:

 

x

If you can’t read it, it says:
 

We never imagined when we named our initative to defeat the re-election of Donald J. Trump, The Lincoln Project, that the president would go as far as honoring the Confederate generals who fought against the United States of America to preserve and uphold white supremacy. For all intents and purposes, Donald Trump today became the Confederacy’s second president.

We cannot allow this.

The Lincoln Project and its allies will be doubling its efforts to protect the U.S. Constitution and this nation by defeating Donald Trump in November and watching Joe Biden take the oath of office next January.

The Lincoln Project.

Then they released this biting video “ad” that the other Ken (teacherken) published to DailyKos yesterday:

 

I hope this stuff helps. As much as it takes to defeat this guy.

Breaking: DOJ filing suit to stop Bolton's book

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John Bolton played his cards spectacularly poorly. He didn’t get to tell his story during the impeachment because he was a coward. And now, trying to monetize what he knows, his book may be stopped by the Justice Department. According to the Washington Post:

The suit was filed, the complaint says, in order “to prevent Defendant John R. Bolton, a former National Security Advisor, from compromising national security by publishing a book containing classified information—in clear breach of agreements he signed as a condition of his employment and as a condition of gaining access to highly classified information and in clear breach of the trust placed within him by the United States Government.”

My question:  Does he simply let it out today? I can hear him now. “Oopsies” as the book hits the shelves.

Scarborough had his "Network"moment. OMG you have to see this. Really.

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(edit: Thanks for the great conversation below. Very interesting discussion. And thanks for the Recs. ~Ken)

I thought this would have made it to DailyKos by now. But my oh my, this morning, Joe Scarborough tore Mark Zuckerberg a new one. I have actually never seen him like this. 

It is all about how Facebook is driving people to right wing extremist sites that are “tearing our democracy apart.”

This is worth your time. The anger begins at the 2:00 minute part. His guest and wife Mika just let him be.
 


The New Logo for the Trump 2020 Campaign is out. Please see what inspired it....

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I saw this on Twitter and I couldn’t believe it. So I strolled on over (for the first time, mind you) to the Donald J Trump website. I won’t provide the link...I think it gives your computer kooties. But if you do go, click on the “shop” button near the top right of the website. There, you will find this handsome skinhead modeling the latest in Trump fashion. It’s $30 if you’re interested. At first it looks innocuous. But wait.

Here you have your lovely girl next door modeling the look. She really pulls it off too. Is she even old enough to vote?
 

Capture.JPG

This video is so good, so powerful, so timely, it made me mad, sad, and glad all at the same time.

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Eleven Films has a new 2 minute and 19 second video, just released earlier today. They aren’t as prolific as say, The Lincoln Project, but they are good.

I don’t think I’ve seen a video that captures the moment and urgency as well as this. Please share this with your friends on whichever social media platform you most prefer. It’s that good. By the end, I admit, I was teared up.

 

If you have other top quality and moving political videos, I’d love for you to share them in the comments.

Happy 4th of July everyone!

A photo diary: A way to contextualize the mounting US Covid-19 dead

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Big numbers are as hard to “see” as they are to comprehend. Scientists tell us that numbers greater than 100 are somewhat lost on the human brain for evolutionary purposes. As the U.S. Covid-19 related deaths get larger and larger, I have been attempting to understand what that looks like. Consequently, on my Facebook page, every Monday since April 27th, I have been posting a photograph of something that represents that week’s cumulative death count. I am putting them all together here, so show you. The key to understanding these photos, is that whether it’s a stadium or a town/city, the official count on the day of publication would mean that if every seat was filled or every resident of the town, well they would be gone...poof!

[note: Most numbers below are rounded. The count of Covid-19 deaths on the individual dates was sourced at WorldOMeters.info at approximately 9:00am PST each Monday. For population sizes, I used this Wikipedia page for 2019 data.]

 

Lincoln Project didn't waste any time with a new video.

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Simply titled “Kamala”

 

Yes, they likely had a few in the queue, but still. I like it!

It is up to us. Rise Up!

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There is no norm, tradition, or law that Trump isn't willing to break to advance himself. That he makes others do it along side of him (or for him) makes it all the more a cult of personality. He stands for nothing. Believes in nothing. Will defend nothing.He cares naught about the people he was put in office to support and defend.

He is a morally bankrupt individual. He is a psychopath.

I was both right and wrong about choosing not to watch the RNC. I was right insofar as it protects my stomach from the nausea, acids and bile that would pour in from the endless stream of lies and hate that would most certainly be on constant display. But I was wrong because I miss the moment and history of now. To bear witness to the attempt of wholesale and wanton destruction of the grand experiment that is the democracy of the United States of America.

If we can successfully relegate him to only four years, we have a chance for renewal and rebuilding our laws, agencies, institutions, and sense of well-being about ourselves as Americans. His defeat must be obvious and complete. There need be a full-throated rejection of his brand of governance here on our shores. His demagoguery is not what my American brethren have fought and died for. It isn't what we intend to support when we pledge allegiance to the flag.There is nothing patriotic about it. The most patriotic act we all have left is the vote. It is imperative that we do. It is a necessity that calls forth a type of bravery many of us may not know we even posses. We cannot rely on others to carry the banner in our stead. It is now incumbent on all of us to rally those we know to fight this fight. Vote. Your life, livelihood, and family depend on it. Reality supersedes hyperbole, embellishment or exaggeration. In other words, we are living through that which we could not make up or imagine.

Please help. The bells are ringing. The alarms are sounding. All hands on deck.

The Brain Drain must be Restored

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I write this short diary to acknowledge a) government is essential to our public health, safety, education and economic success, and b) government workers, especially those with specialty experience, are essential to that government working properly.

I have no idea the number of government employees who either quit in disgust at the perversion of responsibilities they were instructed to implement. I’m thinking of DOJ lawyers ordered to investigate political enemies, or EPA employees ordered to deny climate change while important regulations were stripped away in front of their very eyes. I’m thinking of the doctors and scientists that could have made a mint working anywhere else except for the government but knowing their efforts were best employed by the US Government to do the most amount of good who quit in protest or were fired. I’m thinking of military personnel who were fired for not being loyal to POTUS. I’m thinking of US Postal workers who watched in horror as boxes and machinery were removed and destroyed and now no longer work there. Etc. Maybe you can identify in the comments who you most want to be re-hired.

The list is endless. The amount of quality people no longer working for the US Government must be replaced...by them. Biden needs to set up a program to get them back. To restore their seniority and years of service. To put them back at their wages or higher. Part of the repair from this nightmare administration is putting back the competent people who just couldn’t hang in long enough to survive.

I need a hug

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Every Monday morning on Facebook, I submit a post that tries to contextualize the Covid death count. I use the number of deaths on that day and find an image of what that looks like. When the numbers started to get into the thousands, I used arenas, then stadiums, and then when the numbers got too large for that, I moved to cities. I posted about that here, in a photo diary. (If you follow that link, it was posted on July 27 when the number was at 150,000 dead).

Well I woke up today with the number at 236,500 (according to WorldOMeters) and it turns out there isn’t a US city that conveniently lines up with it. So without planning or any forethought, I just started typing. I think it was stream of consciousness, but I just kept writing. I thought I’d share it here, too. 

It’s always risky putting your heart on your sleeve, but here it goes…..

 

There isn't a US City with a population of about 236,500. So I'll just say that since Covid-19 hit our shores, we have had nearly a quarter million Americans die from it.
The numbers are so large now that it's difficult to summon any emotion about it. However, there is a collective sorrow and fear we should be experiencing. By now most people reading this will have known at least one person to die (peripherally or directly). With the number growing larger and larger, and the rate of death of those infected remaining fairly constant (about 2.5%), it is creeping closer to you and your family. If not stopped, there won't be much anybody can do to avoid contracting it, except perhaps never leaving your house and adhering to surgical room cleanliness and procedures at all times. I'm not sure that's possible. I look at my FB friends and their posts and so many of them have had vacations and trips and still press on. A modified life, but a life nonetheless. It's wonderful to see we're adapting, but I can't help but feel sad about it. Taking a bathtub sized amount of sanitizing gel and wipes everywhere we go. Wiping down surfaces and our hands so often, you damage your own skin trying to remain safe. Facemasks and face shields. It's all necessary b/c you simply don't know where someone infected will exhale next to you and you breathe it in. And if you do, will you get sick? Will you be part of the few who feel "off" but not really? Meanwhile, you're a superspreader yourself, perhaps? Or will you get sick and feel terrible and lose your sense of smell and taste? Maybe you'll need hospitalization but eventually you get back on your feet and say, "Wow, that was awful, but let's carry on," unaware of how your "new" life will be because the long term effects of what this virus does to our body isn't really known. Or perhaps you're one of the 2.5% and you get to say goodbye to a nurse or doctor as you beg them to let your family know your last words because dying alone is what was in the cards for you the day you were born?
 
I've had enough. And with this asshat in the oval office, threatening to fire the leading expert on this type of contagion, well that cliff we're rushing toward just got a lot closer.
 
I can't do mediocre leadership anymore. I can't do reality TV star. I want boring back. I want to not think about all of this all of the time. I want to go back to my office. I want to be able to take a client out to dinner and meet a friend in a bar. I want a hug from someone not in my house.
 
236,500 dead and counting. For every 100,000 new cases (which seem to be a daily occurrence now), 2,500 people will die. It's a mathematical certainty. I think I will go vomit now, because human life is meaningful to me. I care. Why do those who lead us not care? Why are they such awful people?
 
For those still reading this, please know that I have love in my heart for you and who you are to me. Some of you are long time friends from elementary school or high school or college. Some of you are family, regardless how distant. Some are fraternity brothers and some are work colleagues. Many of you I know through my work in the City of Mountain View and my time as an elected [mayor]. Regardless of how I got to know you, you are worth your life. You have value and dignity. We should not be treated this way by our government. This isn't politics. It's simply immoral.
 
Vote this guy and all of his enablers out of office and then, and only then, will we have a fighting chance of hugging again. And believe me, when it is safe to do so, I will want a hug.

What follows is a feel good story

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The following diary is not about politics or my experience as an activist or elected official. This is a true story.
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Some of you may know that professionally, I have been a Financial Advisor at Morgan Stanley for the past 19 years. At a base level, what that means is that I manage stock portfolios for other people. It’s much more than that, but you get the idea.
In 2004, I on-boarded a new client. This couple was in their early-sixties and the husband was planning on retiring in late 2007. The wife had not worked in years, save for her many volunteer jobs. Individually and as a couple, they are simply delightful and wonderful people. They had been married for nearly 40 years at that point, and had never had children. Also, and interestingly, they had never purchased a house. They claimed that they liked the freedom of moving to different locations every few years for “a change of view.” Their only safety net was their life savings, which at the time of his retirement was about $1.2 million. This after working for the same corporation for 35 years.
Expecting turbulence and volatility, in early 2008, I adjusted his accounts to be more conservative, but apparently not conservative enough, as it turned out. The second half of 2008 was simply brutal. Before you could say “boo,” 25% of his market value was wiped away. On a relative basis, he was beating the market because it was dropping much faster than his accounts, but that was of little comfort when you just started your retirement and much of your savings had evaporated within the first year. Quite frankly, it was terrifying. I’ll never forget the meeting we had in my office in October, 2008. It was the longest and most challenging meeting I had ever had up to that point in time….and ever since. It lasted just over 3 hours. He was crying. He was angry. He was sad. And most importantly, he was scared as there was no house to sell for extra money and no kids to care for him. He was afraid to tell his wife what had happened.
By the end of that meeting, we had worked out a personal plan for recovery. I promised weekly status updates on market conditions and any changes I was making for the portfolio. He agreed to be more aggressive, where appropriate, to try and claw back to par. It wasn’t easy. Those phone calls were tough. He asked good questions and he kept me focused. When you retire, you no longer receive a paycheck, so your savings and social security are all you have in the way of income. Some are lucky to have a pension and/or rental income, but not him. It was up to me to help. In March of 2009, the market stopped going down and we were able to start recovery in earnest. The weekly phone calls started getting a little easier. In a year’s time, I had him squarely on the path to complete recovery.
Ever since, he has learned not to worry about market fluctuations and dips. He knows I am there to see him through. I don’t have precise information, but I know since 2009 he has taken out a great deal over $500,000 to live. Some of that went to taxes and fees, of course. His account valuation is presently well in excess of that $1.2M he had at retirement.
I just returned from his house. You see, just last week after helping him with his mortgage, he closed escrow on his first house in his 79 years. I called to let him know that I was going to swing by to drop something off. It would be nice to see them both again. [I *really* miss my clients]. He and his wife were so happy to receive me. I brought over “a gift from my heart” I called it.  Although we were never closer than 10 feet away and I couldn’t go inside, they expressed such a heartwarming appreciation for all that I did for them. But in reality, it’s what they did for me. They gave me their complete trust and confidence so I couldn’t let them down. And ultimately, they made me a much much better financial advisor.

Pence admits to Trump, he doesn't have the power

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Well, tomorrow should be a lot less dramatic. Still should be fun to watch, though.

www.nytimes.com/…
 

Vice President Mike Pence told President Trump on Tuesday that he did not believe he had the power to block congressional certification of Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s victory in the presidential election despite Mr. Trump’s baseless insistence that he did, people briefed on the conversation said.

Mr. Pence’s message, delivered during his weekly lunch with the president, came hours after Mr. Trump further turned up the public pressure on the vice president to do his bidding when Congress convenes Wednesday in a joint session to ratify Mr. Biden’s Electoral College win.

I need your help to rebuild a relationship. What would you say or do?

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I think I'm gonna crowdsource this and ask for opinions, thoughts, comments, and "what would you say or do".  
 
The situation:
I have a friend from my town, someone I have known for about 10 years, someone I have worked with civically, who is a joyous type of guy. The type of guy who is always insisting we go get a beer, which of course, the two of us (and others) have done before. He is also a Trump supporter, which has always annoyed me, but never enough to not be friends. I like people of all stripes and never try and push people away. I know my Facebooks posts are from a very left wing perspective, but the idea of losing ourselves completely into our fiefdoms has never appealed to me. We always have to try, don't we?

 
So, on Facebook, I asked him to publicly denounce the lies and call for unity. To his credit, he gave it his best try, but all he said are ideas that we all share. This was his reply:
 
We believe in the rule of law.
We believe in democracy & unity.
We are one nation under God with liberty and justice for all.
We are America.
The peaceful transfer of power is a hallmark of our democracy. Yesterday was anything but peaceful.
It was an assault on our long-nurtured yet always imperfect democracy, our constitution, and our shared national identity.
There is no place for violence, racism, discrimination and bigotry. We are all one Human Race.

I unfriended him. But I didn't want this to end, so I DM'd him and and here was the short thread. What I want to hear from you guys are your thoughts. How should I respond? What should I do? What would you do? Where is the line?

Me: [person's name], rather than slink away, I am letting you know that I unfriended you today. I'll cite irreconcilable differences as the cause.  I am extremely angry and emotional today. There's always the chance that I calm down. But for now, this is my decision.
 
Him: Thats your choice Albeit a silly one  I've never disrespected you  I remember the post so we don't have a public argument  All you have done of late is to bait me. Friends don't bait friends.
 
Me: Yes, that's my choice.  I'm not disrespecting you. I'm taking care of myself. All of the things you said you believe, like the rule of law, unity, etc, are shared.  What the situation demands right now is for Trump supporters to stop insisting that his lies are true.  A person can start by saying that the election wasn't rigged, that separating kids from from their parents is abhorrent, that white nationalists have no productive place in American society, etc.  I don't need to come to Trump supporters. They countenanced this behavior, excused it, let it be. It eventually lead to what we witnessed on Wednesday. People like me sent out warnings, begging people to not normalize all of this.  No, Trump supporters need to recognize their part in all of this.  
You think this is "silly?" How else can I make a point? If the idea that you lost a friend doesn't bother you, then we were never friends to begin with. I refuse to believe that. You're a good guy. Someone I like. Someone who's company I enjoy. A leader of [my town]. I don't take any of this lightly.  We need to come together. We need more than platitudes. We need self reflection.
Your input, please.

A Perfect Moment

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Have you ever had a moment so perfect your memory holds on to it for dear life? Those moments are reflected in TV shows and movies as some kind of flashback to a happy moment. It’s typically illustrated on old VHS or Super 8, or even the primitive digital cameras that would allow you to record a movie. You can visualize the scene. Maybe, for you, it’s your wedding day and one of your guests catches you and your new spouse in some goofy but amazing moment of glee. Or it’s looking back at your child’s first steps and the smile that is painted on their face as they recognize they’ve leveled up. For me, it was April 28, 2008, at the Four Seasons on Maui. Even typing these words, here, make me tear up…again.

Just a few weeks ago, my wife and I celebrated our 25th wedding anniversary. In those 25 years, we have lived in 4 different addresses, had two children, had about 12 different jobs if you count me temping during the recession of the early 2000s, have had a couple health issues, and have seen many ups and downs in our relationship. Some of you have been around for the bad. Most of you have been around for the good.

Our son was born in June of 2001. About 3 months before he was born, the start-up company I worked for ran out of money. Things were hard in Silicon Valley in those days. I lost my job and with it, health insurance for the “pre-existing” condition known as pregnancy. Our daughter was born via C-section and the doctor told us our son would be too. Without health insurance, it would definitely be expensive, but if something went wrong, it could have been catastrophic. Luckily, our synagogue put us on their group health plan, and the night before he was born, we were finally able to relax. He was a healthy baby upon delivery.

I was working at a “dot-com” (in 1998) and things were moving very fast, when our daughter was born. Seemingly prioritizing work, I made the mistake of not staying home long enough after the delivery to nurse my wife back to strength and help at home with the infant. After our second, seeing how I was unemployed, I vowed to begin looking for work in August, which I did. Unfortunately, by that date, very few companies were hiring in my area. We lost our house. A few months after that, had I been diagnosed, I likely would have been labeled clinically depressed.

In July of 2002, I switched careers. You know that thing I have an MBA to do? Those skills I amassed during the years of working? I tossed it all to the side and began again in a new field, a new industry, a new company, and had a very uncertain future because it was a “do-it-yourself” kind of gig. Sink or swim. My hiring manager said “This job is easy. Just do what I tell you to do. If you don’t, you’re going to starve.” My ears still heard the ringing of the toddler’s wails and the hungry cries of an infant. I was not going to starve. I set out to work. It’s nearly 19 years later and I’m still at that same job in that same company in that same office and I’d say by most definitions, it’s worked out fairly well.

I worked tirelessly and relentlessly in those early years. I had to make up for what we lost. And in 2008, using a discount I was able to obtain through a corporate rate, I took my family to Maui. It was to be a first class vacation as we hadn’t had any real break since the kids had been born. We first stayed at the Grand Wailea Hotel, hearing that the pools there were some of the best in the world and the kids would enjoy them. I had heard correctly. Then after a few days, we switched to the Four Seasons hotel (literally next door), and had an entirely different kind of experience.

And this brings me back to that perfect moment. Something like this is impossible to plan, forecast, or predict. It just happens. And if you’re lucky enough to spot it while it’s happening, it’s heaven.  At this hotel, they have an outside restaurant called Ferarro’s. My wife arranged it so that we would sit for dinner about 30 minutes before the sun was to set. We sat facing the west. It was a perfect evening. The sky had beautiful clouds that look like they were painted by O’Keefe. The weather was such that you could not even feel the temperature; it was neither cold nor warm. The kids were dressed in their fanciest clothes, as were their parents. And it turns out, the food was beyond delicious. It was extraordinary.  

Placed behind my table and separated by about 20 feet were two musicians playing a classical guitar and a violin. Instruments only, no singing. Their names were Vance Koenig and Don Lax. Vance played the guitar and I believe he was the “band leader,” such as they were. They added to the ambiance so perfectly that it’s hard to think of that place without their sounds. As the sun was setting, the kids had their food in front of them and were happily chatting with each other, my wife and I sipped on our wine, and we held hands. That’s when Vance and Don started playing the most beautiful instrumental version of U2’s “One” I have ever heard, before or since. I started crying.

Jordan, our daughter, noticed it first. She looked up and asked, “Daddy, why are you crying?” At this, Bennett notices too and my wife squeezes my hand harder. Perhaps she understood it as well. I simply responded, “Because this is a perfect moment,” I said through a happy, but very audible sob. Both kids got up and hugged me. They were 9 and 6 at the time. Jordan is now 22, living in Boston about to graduate college. Bennett is 19 in St. Louis and a sophomore.

To celebrate our 25th, my wife suggested we return to the Four Seasons on Maui. I quickly said yes. We will be going in a week and a half from now, almost exactly 13 years after this “perfect moment.” That moment I see with absolute clarity and emotion I still feel is not likely to repeat itself. But she informed me that once again, we have a reservation at Ferarro’s at about 30 minutes to sunset. The two musicians won’t be there this time, but perhaps, just perhaps, we will create a new indelible memory, just for ourselves.

Happy Spring everyone.

PS: I wanted to get away from politics, if only for a few moments.

Freedom gifted over 5,600 kids and teachers exposure to Covid-19

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This is an abject lesson in carelessness.

5,600 kids in a Tampa, Fl area school district are now home again after covid-29 exposure and covid-19 infections. 316 school employees are also now quarentining. Meaning those kids who are still going to school, won’t have as many teachers and administrators to teach and help them. And yet…

The district does not require vaccinated students to quarantine after exposure unless they develop symptoms.

Parents are now “free” to homeschool their kids once again.  Wait….we really don’t know the long term effects of Covid-19 yet, do we? Hmm, maybe they just absorbed life long chronic health conditions.

As a result of the proactive decision to prevent people from wearing masks, the Hillsborough School Board will have an emergency meeting tomorrow to discuss (and decide?) the best way to mitigate the situation. Um, fellas, the best way was to prevent it from happening. The Board will allow one hour of public comments, which I’m sure will be entertaining to listen to the indefensible trying to be defended.

Public health is an actual thing, ya’ll. You need to take it seriously*. 
 

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!FREEDOM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

*I’m talking to you, Florida.

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“Just Listen” or Losing my Friend to the Alt-Right Manosphere

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In the year 2000, I was working at a start-up here in Silicon Valley. My initial job was to call other start-ups funded by our shared Venture Capitalist to see if there was cross pollination in terms of business opportunities. It was because of that effort I came across a young whipper-snapper named Joe (not his real name). He and I hit it off so spectacularly that I actually switched companies and went to work for his. Joe was one of the company’s founders, which consisted of people who (temporarily) dropped out of Stanford University to try and kick-start a business.

Although the CEO was brilliant, he was also an emotional abuser. We all left the company when our major benefactor stopped funding us in early 2001. Such was the times during the “dot bomb” days of Silicon Valley.

Joe eventually finished his college degree and we remained friends. He came to my house and played with my kids. We ate together and laughed heartily. We liked the same movies. Not only did we share common work experiences and were both suffering from PTSD from the abuse of the CEO, we also shared common values. Both of us were Jewish and we both shared goals when it came to politics and policy. Over time, we separated by distance, but were never really far apart due to Facebook.

During the George W Bush years, it wasn’t uncommon for either of us to post anti-war items on Facebook and then have each other’s back when the eventual flame wars started in the comments. We both campaigned for Barack Obama. He was very active in Occupy Wall Street and even travelled to DC for the Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert “Rally to Restore Sanity” on the National Mall. In short, we were friends.

My friend is now someone I no longer understand and I’m going to have to say goodbye. This diary is my first real attempt to consolidate my thoughts of his transformation.

Joe first started to understand that something was wrong in his life when his relationship with his girlfriend became unfulfilling. He also lost his mother and grandmother in short succession and was estranged from his father. I was unaware of these events.

He decided to take a trip around the world to discover himself. He sold most of his possessions and took off, alone. What was supposed to be one year turned into four. During his travels, his adventures were amazing. He immersed himself for prolonged periods of time in some of the most out-of-the-way and disparate cultures he could find. He rarely said no to food choices or places to sleep. His stories would make your jaw drop, and he documented most of them in an amazing blog he maintained. His intelligence and creativity shined through in his photographs and his prose.  He returned to the United States, and ended his travels, in March of 2020 when Covid-19 forced a national lock-down.

In order to cut down on an overly long diary, I’ll simply cut to the chase: Joe has fully swallowed the “red pill” and is (in my opinion) trying to become the titular head of the Manosphere.  From Wikipedia:
 

The manosphere is a heterogeneous group of online communities that includes men's-rights activists (MRAs),[2]incels (involuntary celibates),[3]Men Going Their Own Way (MGTOW),[4]pick-up artists (PUAs),[5] and fathers' rights groups.[6] Some of these groups have adversarial relationships with one another.[15] Debbie Ging writes that several groups, such as MRAs and PUAs, "exaggerate their differences in displays of infight posturing, in spite of the fact that their philosophies are almost identical".[16]

While the specifics of each group's ideology sometimes conflict, the general ideology of manosphere groups centers on the promotion of masculinity, strong opposition to feminism, and misogyny.[17] Journalist Caitlin Dewey argues that the main tenets of the manosphere can be reduced to (1) the corruption of modern society by feminism, in violation of inherent sex differences between men and women; and (2) the ability of men to save society or achieve sexual prowess by adopting a hyper-masculine role and forcing women to submit to them.[18]

The term “red pill” is derived from the movie “The Matrix” and represents any man who accepts the manosphere’s ideology. I’ll let you dig as deep as you want into that world, but suffice it to say, I disagree with it entirely. Be careful and tread lightly. It’s dark there.

After Joe returned from his trip, I was unaware of his transformation so I picked up my communications with him where we left off. I wanted to know what he was going to do next. I was quickly made aware of his new worldview, and his new Christianity, by his invitation for me to listen to his podcast and watch videos of his interviews on YouTube. At first, because I have a 20+ year history with him, I gave him the benefit of the doubt and was enthralled by his stories and his very quick ascension in that world. After listening to hours and hours of his podcasts/videos, it was clear to me that he was talking almost exclusively to people in that world who are considered “leaders.”  At one point in our back-and-forth, I asked him if there was any place in the mansophere for a “proud and loyal progressive Democrat.” His response to me was, “If you listen. Just listen and not argue, there could be.”

This was chilling. Those words have haunted me, because he has said them a few times. “Just listen.” When you listen, you aren’t in an active conversation or debate. You are conscribed a position of inferiority and powerlessness. You listen and obey is the message I received. That was the moment I lost my friend.

In an excellent article/expose on Jezabel, noted feminist author Tracy Clark-Flory wrote an essay called “The Manosphere’s Existential Crisis is building the Future of the Far Right” wherein she claims it is a movement in search of a leader.

And now, frighteningly, I believe that leader has been found. It’s only a matter of time before Joe is either crowned or he adeptly claims the mantel for himself. In a fractured society, it takes someone as experienced, bold, and pedigreed as Joe to do what I think he is doing. And to be accepted by the group. In a little under a year and a half of him being active in that world, he already has a speaking slot at their annual convention, called 21Con which takes place next month in Orlando.

Readers, I really don’t know what to do or even how to think about all of this. This is not a case of a family member (or friend) who is lost to the right and now holiday dinners are uncomfortable. This is someone I know and have an historic deep respect and love for, who may very well lead a mass of mostly white men into battle. In a cryptic tweet a week ago, he mentioned “two weeks” which of course, is 9/18.

I am scared.
I am lost.

Politics: The poison and the cure. Or how this country has broken me

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The future is an infinite succession of presents– Howard Zinn

Ever come across an article and think that the author perfectly captured what you have been feeling (but didn’t know how to put into words)?  The estimable Dahlia Lithwick has done that for me, and not for the first time.

I met Dahlia exactly one time, at a Netroots Nation event at least 12 years ago. I was meeting a friend of mine for dinner, and when I walked up to the table, he was sitting with a few other folks I didn’t know, including her. Ever since, I’ve been enamored by her brain, wit, charm, and turn of a word. I’ve followed her writings (especially at Slate.com where she is a senior editor) and her appearances on MSNBC, especially with Rachel Maddow. Heck, we’re even “friends” on Facebook.

The title of this diary is an amalgam of the headline of Dahlia’s latest article in Slate, and what shows up on your Facebook feed when you share that article with your friends. And how often have we been both broken and engaged? Exhausted but inspired? That’s kind of what her article is about.

I am going to post some of my favorite, most salient, parts of her article here, but I truly encourage you to read the whole piece. [side note: I’m aware of TeacherKen’s diaries that are recommendations of articles to read, but I am BayAreaKen, and all of us Ken’s stick together in our daily reading suggestions. Trust us! LOL]

Click here to read the article.
 

Her essay begins thusly, and if you’re not hooked, then I’d like to hear from you on how you have survived the past 6 years!

At the start of the pandemic, I began searching around for a complicated word that would express the idea that I was basically fine but also utterly shattered…. that sense that you can personally be surviving but also that nothing is actually OK. This is all separate and apart from the language of “privilege” or “languishing” or “behavioral activating.”

What I meant, looking back, is that I knew the feeling that I was “OK” was tenuous. The world around me could get worse, but at the same time I also couldn’t imagine things devolving any further.

Then everything got worse.

She then pivots to a wonderful summary line of what has been happening, in front of our eyes for the past several years:

In any march toward authoritarianism, fostering a broad sense of public hopelessness is very much the point. …. once a majority of any population has fundamentally given up on politics, on institutions, on voting and education and protest, you’re in pretty good shape to be rolled by the next wave of Trumpism.

And now the word we’ve been looking for, to describe our current situation, for those of us who care, and certainly those of us who read Daily Kos, well, daily, we do. We care and therefore we may feel exactly this way:

Out of nowhere, [a friend] swooped down and offered up what I’d been searching for: a Yiddish word (of course), tzebrokhnkayt, which means, she explained, “the quality of brokenheartedness that gives strength in healing.”….at its essence it means that “we each carry our shattered pieces with us.”… Tzebrokhnkayt is not something in need of quick fixing; it is instead honored. It means that we are obligated to gather up, tend to, and honor the pain, but also to take up the work of healing. ... And [another] friend turned the word into a prescription: “Let’s not be OK. Let’s find power in not being OK. Let’s honor our brokenness—and the brokenness of our country—by finding the collective strength to fight for change.”

It’s the broken heartedness that gives us strength. I know when I am down low and in the midst of despair, I want so desperately to rise above it. I didn’t think that feeling itself was the source of my power. But truly it is. This is when we rise. We have to.

Now we are told, frequently, not to “politicize” horrific news events (like school shootings), but isn’t that all we can do? Dahlia continues:

 

Amid all the shattering brokenness, in politics lay the seeds of repair.

These acts of repair, of holding the pain of others and refusing to be told how and when to put that pain down, are politics. At times like these, politics are all we have left, and that is enough.
 

I know I’ve stretched fair use (there really is a lot I’ve left out!), but this essay ends magnificently, imploring us to both feel/experience our emotions and to be engaged.

It turns out, we do not, in fact, require a complicated German or Yiddish word or a complex philosophical descriptor to explain the wearying condition of being ripped apart, heartsick and furious, stabilized to the point of near-sanity, before launching back into the fight, shattered but still awake and still committed. This is just what life is now. We take care of one another and ourselves to go on to do the work. We can bike, read, plant our gardens, organize, vote, march, donate, and be kind. We can call it “pain” or “politics” or “self-care,” or tzebrokhnkayt. But the fact remains that the future depends on this “infinite succession of presents.” Finding ways to marry the brokenness to the work is a part of the work itself.


Only I get to tell you what to do - Republican messaging deconstructed

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In this morning’s “Abbreviated Pundit Roundup”, Greg Dworkin briefly highlights the first few tweets of a much longer tweet thread by Ethan Grey (@_ethangrey) on Twitter.

I found that thread and am posting it here, because it deserves to be read in its entirety. I think it’s helpful to see, in clear, easy to understand language, why we can’t talk to each other any longer.
 

“Conservatism consists of exactly one proposition, to wit: There must be in-groups whom the law protects but does not bind, alongside out-groups whom the law binds but does not protect.”— Frank Wilhoit; The Travesty of Liberalism

Here is Ethan’s thread:  
 

Here is the Republican message on everything of importance:
1. They can tell people what to do.
2. You cannot tell them what to do.
This often gets mistaken for hypocrisy, there’s an additional layer of complexity to this, but this is the basic formula.


You've watched the Republican Party champion the idea of "freedom" while you have also watched the same party openly assault various freedoms, like the freedom to vote, freedom to choose, freedom to marry who you want and so on.

If this has been a source of confusion, then your assessments of what Republicans mean by “freedom” were likely too generous. Here’s what they mean:
1. The freedom to tell people what to do.
2. Freedom from being told what to do.


When Republicans talk about valuing “freedom”, they’re speaking of it in the sense that only people like them should ultimately possess it.

So with this in mind, let’s examine some of our political issues with an emphasis on who is telling who what to do. And hopefully there will be no ambiguity about what the Republican Party message is ever again.

Let’s start with the COVID-19 pandemic. We were told by experts in infectious diseases that to control the spread of the pandemic, we had to socially distance, mask, and get vaccinated. So, in a general sense, we were being told what to do. Guess who had a big problem with that.  All Republicans saw were certain people trying to tell them what to do, which was enough of a reason to make it their chief priority to insist that they will not be told what to do. Even though what they were told to do could save lives, including their own.

As you can see, this is a very stunning commitment to refusing to be told what to do. So much so that it is not in fact “pro-life.” But Republicans will nevertheless claim to be the “pro-life” party. That is because they recognize “pro-life” can be used to tell people what to do.

The reason they say they are “pro-life” when they are trying to tell women what to do with their bodies is not out of genuine concern for human life, but because they recognize that in this position, they can tell women what to do with their bodies.

That’s why when you use that same appeal—“pro-life”—when you ask Republicans to do something about gun violence in schools, it doesn’t work. Because you are now in the position of telling Republicans what to do. That’s precisely why they don’t want to do anything about it.

Anyway, gun violence in schools is not a problem, but their children having to wear masks in schools is. Because somebody is telling their children what to do. Dead children don’t bother them, but telling their children what to do? Only *they* should do that.

They claim to be for “small government”, but that really means a government that tells them what to do should be as small as possible. But when the Republican Party recognizes it has an opportunity to tell people what to do, the government required for that tends to be large.

The reason Republicans are so focused on the border isn’t because they care about border security, it’s because they recognize it as the most glaring example of when they can tell other people what to do. That's why it’s their favorite issue. You want in? Too bad. Get out.

If Republicans could do this in every social space—tell the people who aren’t like them too bad, get the fuck out—I’m here to assure that would be something resembling their ideal society.

Now, there are economic policies that we’ve proposed that we can demonstrate would be of obvious benefit to even Republican voters. So how do Republicans leaders kill potential support for these policies? Make the issue about who is telling who what to do.

They focus on the fact that Democrats may raise taxes. Even when it’s painfully obvious that Democrats aren’t going to raise taxes on everyone (or on very few people), what’s important here is that Democrats are the people telling certain people what to do. If you want to know why Republicans can easily be talked out of proposals from the Democratic Party that are shown to be of benefit to them, it is precisely because they have to entertain the idea of Democrats telling certain people what to do.

What you didn’t understand from the very beginning is that Democrats should not ultimately be in the position to tell anyone what to do. Only Republicans should be in the position to tell people what to do.

On the issue of climate change, a lot of them don’t regard it as a serious issue to the extent that they think it is a hoax. This is because when you tell Republicans to do something for the sake of the planet, you are still ultimately telling them to what to do. Furthermore, you are conceiving the planet as a thing that all human beings should have to share. I am here to assure you that the GOP’s main concern with the planet is to ensure that they don’t have to share it.

Now here’s where things get interesting: when you explain to Republicans you want them to do something and explain it’s on the basis of benefitting other people. Now you have really crossed a line. Not only did you tell them what to do, you told them to consider others. The whole point of an arrangement where you can tell people what to do, but you can’t be told what to do, is precisely to avoid having to consider others. This is why this is their ideal arrangement: so they don’t have to do that.

As you can see, this is a very toxic relationship with the idea of who can tell who what to do. So much so that it seems like the entire point is to conceive of a “right” kind of people who can tell other people what to do without being told what to do. Yep, that’s the point.

So let’s add one more component to the system for who tells who what to do:
1. There are “right” human beings and there are "wrong" ones.
2. The “right” ones get to tell the “wrong” ones what to do.
3. The “wrong” ones do not tell the “right” ones what to do.

As you can see, I've just been talking about white male supremacy and the accompanying caste system structure it enforces all along. And I'm talking about this because the message of the Republican Party is that they quite like it. But I realize that we are operating in an environment where white male supremacy is so entrenched that the press can’t even conceive of the Republican Party’s agenda of sorting the “right” human beings from the “wrong” ones as maybe presenting a “messaging problem.”

This is because the press has chosen to accommodate the Republican Party in a very specific way:
1. It normalizes the Republican agenda.
2. It normalizes framing the responsibility for stopping that agenda as ultimately being on Democrats.

Think about it: white supremacy is not allowed to be viewed as a “messaging problem.” Even when it’s a threat to democracy. Because if it’s a “messaging problem”, to Republicans, that sounds you're telling them that's a problem they have to solve.

Anyway, I made this thread mostly because I realize that the press has a "messaging problem." Namely, in the sense that they seem extremely averse to explicitly identifying the message of the Republican Party. It's called white male supremacy. Thanks for reading.

Guilty!!

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Justice works slowly, but it works.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/07/22/bannon-january-6-trial-friday/

Wherein I embarrass myself in front of my community. LOL

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On January 5, 2021, I submitted a very short diary. Well, “diary” isn’t really the right word. Maybe “blog entry.” Regardless, in hindsight, it turns out that I could not have been more wrong in my one sentence prediction of what would happen on January 6. And today, as I reflect back, I am embarrassed at my 100% lack of imagination as to what could happen the next day.

Here is the link to that ill-advised post that got: 102 rec’s and 120 comments. Interestingly, in re-reading the comments, nobody came back and laughed at me for being so wrong.

And here is a screen shot of what I wrote (or just click on the link): 

Capture.JPG

The NY Times article is still available, although interestingly, it says they updated it last in September of 2021. I wonder what the update was. Hmmm.

Anyway, go ahead. Make fun of me for being a doofus. January 6th was not “a lot less dramatic.” Indeed, it was more dramatic than I could have ever conceived. 

And this brings me to one point I think is worth discussing: how were we, on this site, all so blind to what was about to happen? I had NO IDEA that the storming of the Capitol was even on the docket of possibilities, let alone a fully thought out and organized plan. How did we miss it? Or was it only me? Yeah, I don’t swim in the 4Chan or Telegram sewers. Perhaps we need a dedicated DailyKos staffer to do that and have a specific, weekly, article on what these radicals are saying. If for no other reason than to be better prepared.  

Just a thought. I really hope we get a dialog going on this topic. We have to be better equipped when dealing with what Hillary Clinton accurately described as “deplorables.”

 

Breaking: J6 Committee to issue Criminal Referrals

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UPDATE: Tuesday, Dec 6, 2022 · 5:12:12 PM +00:00·BayAreaKen

Also from CNN

“When the panel makes referrals, Thompson said it will be a separate document from the panel’s final report that will be sent to DOJ.”

 

www.cnn.com/...

The House select committee investigating the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol has decided to make criminal referrals to the Department of Justice, the panel’s chairman, Rep. Bennie Thompson, told reporters Tuesday.

Thompson, a Mississippi Democrat, said the committee has not narrowed down the universe of individuals who may be referred.

Asked whether Thompson believed any witnesses perjured themselves, he said, “that’s part of the discussion.”

The committee is expected to meet later Tuesday.

Let justice prevail!

District Attorney Quits Twitter; encourages other DA's to do the same

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Taking a principled stance against hatred, racism, and antisemitism, Santa Clara County District Attorney Jeff Rosen has announced his office has deactivated their Twitter account.

From his Facebook page, his lede:
 

I want to announce to everyone that I have decided to end my Office's and campaign site's affiliation with Twitter. I do not do so frivolously or as a stunt. I do so because–if not me, then who, and if not now, then when? Here is my official statement.

Jeff Rosen is Jewish. When I saw him recite  “if not me, then who, and if not now, then when?” goosebumps immediately went up my neck. As a Jewish American, that has been happening more frequently, recently. Most of you have seen on these pages, the emboldened fascist Right has been doing Nazi salutes on freeways and a huge rise in White Supremist activity. It is indeed a scary time to be living as things do NOT seem to be getting better on this score. 

Here is the official statement from DA Rosen and his office:
 

"As Americans, we have the freedom to loudly express our political opinions and strongly disagree with each other. However, when that speech crosses the line into hatred, racism and antisemitism, all of our precious and hard fought freedoms are undermined and our democracy is weakened. Every American has a moral obligation to fight against hate speech. There are many ways to do that, large and small. Here’s one way: Quit Twitter. My Office – the largest prosecutor's office in Northern California – is quitting Twitter.

Some think that allowing hatred, encouraging it, and standing beside it equates with free speech and constitutional liberty. That is not a principled stand. That is complicity. That is what many Germans did in the 1930s and what many South Africans did in the 1980s. It is what Elon Musk is doing in the 2020s.

Anyone who uses Twitter has noticed the proliferation of extremist posts in their daily feed. Many of these handles were previously banned by Twitter because they spread hatred and bigotry. Now they are back. That is not free speech. It is a cynical marketing strategy.

Mr. Musk is hiding behind the curtain of being a defender of balanced public dialogue. Yet he himself has used Twitter to spread hatred and bigotry. In a now-deleted Tweet, Mr. Musk used the antisemitic meme Pepe the Frog. If antisemitism is okay, then so is homophobia, misogyny, and racism. That may help Mr. Musk make money. But it can erode our democracy and destroy our country by dividing Americans against each other.

I ask other District Attorneys around our nation to join me in standing against hatred and bigotry by leaving Twitter. We proudly represent the People, all of them. As American prosecutors, we speak with one voice – against crime, violence, greed, and hatred. We don’t need 280 characters or a Billionaire’s app to say, “Bigotry has no home in the land of the free and the home of the brave."

The Office’s Twitter account will be deactivated on December 6, 2022. Those who wish to follow communications from the Office may follow it on Facebook or its website.

Several news sites have picked up the story, such as:
- The San Jose Mercury News

- The Los Angeles Times

- Local TV News

- Etc
 

Comments from his Facebook Page have been overwhelmingly positive. Here is one such comment:
 

100 percent support your action and position. Many of us are "on hold" as we wait for a suitable replacement. Socials have become a highly effective and convenient way to stay in touch with friends, with organizations and with current /breaking news events and the like. But they're only as valuable as they are #trustworthy #safe and #nontoxic. Unfortunately, at least for the time being, Twitter meets none of those qualifying criteria. I will let you and my social graph know when an alternative seems ready, safe, trustworthy and nontoxic, and hopefully a little fun, delightful and helpful. #values #integrity #takeastand

Full disclosure: I know Jeff Rosen as he was on the ballot for the first time in 2014 when I was also running for City Council. He gave me an endorsement for my campaign (as I did his). Also, his kids were in my kids classes at school together. I know him to have the highest character and integrity and quite frankly is a role model public servant.

I do hope that other DA’s take him up on his challenge to quit twitter as it turns into a 4Chan hate screaming match.

 

Elon's shrinking wealth and why it won't make a difference: Comprehending large numbers

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As I surf the internet, I keep running into articles or tweets or Facebook posts, about Elon Musk’s shrinking wealth due to the market price of Tesla Corporation’s stock going down (ticker: TSLA). Indeed, even on Daily Kos, there is a rec’d diary essentially gloating in the idea that he isn’t the richest person in the world anymore. And today it’s worse for him than it was yesterday, because as I type, the S&P500 is up .75%, the NASDAQ up 1%, but TSLA is down 5.25% for the day. It’s easy to have a bit of schadenfreude about this. I mean, the guy has shown us who he is, and to put it mildly, he’s a prick. Why not take pleasure in his rapidly diminishing wealth?

But here is the thing: It won’t make a bit of difference, to him. 

The whole situation reminds me of a joke I heard (decades ago) when it was reported that Paul McCartney was the richest entertainer in the world. He had a reported net worth of about $750M at the time. The joke was that his wife had lost her purse one day, and Paul asked, “What was in it.” Linda said, “Oh, about $20 million dollars.” Paul replied, “No worries sweetie, we’ll get you another purse.”

And that’s sort of what it is like for Elon. If you do a search on his net worth, you get somewhere between $165B and $190B. I don’t really know what it is and I don’t think I really care. Because the number is so mind numbingly big, I can’t comprehend it. And according to brain science, neither can you.

If you had to spend $1,000 a day, how long would it take you to spend $1,000,000? It would take 2.74 years (1,000 days exactly). If you had $1,000,000,000 and had to spend $1,000 a day, it would take you 2,740 YEARS. That’s how big a billion is compared to a million (it’s exactly 1,000 times bigger). And if you think about it, both numbers (2.74 years vs 2,740 years) had the same emotional or bodily reaction inside of you. Maybe you respond with “wow” or “oh my!” but your reaction isn’t 1,000 times stronger, which is what the math tells you is the difference.

In brain science there's a law of large numbers, and it's this: the larger the number, the worse the human brain's ability to comprehend it. A general rule of thumb is that the brain counts like this: one, two, three, four, many. 

A few years ago, I came across a website that put Jeff Bezo’s wealth in perspective, using the size of a computer screen pixel. At the time, his wealth was about $185B. For purposes of this explanation, a pixel is smaller than the size of the period at the end of this sentence. If one pixel represented $1,000, this is what it looks like so you can “see” it:

 

Capture.JPG

Do you see the green square, which represents 1,000 pixels or $1,000,000?  For that to be $1 billion, it would have to be 1,000 times as long. And Elon has about 180 more of those much longer squares. Seriously, go to the website to see how long it takes to scroll through that much money, and to discover how just small fractions of it could fund things like school districts, health care, or higher education. (click here:  mkorostoff.github.io/...). It’s worth your time if you haven’t seen it before.

The bottom line here is that, even if Twitter ceases to exist, and Musk loses all $44B he has at stake*, it won’t make a difference at all to him personally. Which, in my opinion, makes him one of the most vile men in the world. Because he is literally using his money to make the world a worse place. A world full of hatred and calling people who pray differently than you, or look different from you, or come from a different place than you, “others.”

Given how there is no public shares of Twitter, the proxy to punish Musk is to punish Tesla. I’m no lover of Tesla (I own a different brand of electric vehicle), but that is a company that has its own employees, factories, equipment, business plan, etc. It isn’t Twitter. It can certainly be argued that TSLA stock price is or isn’t worth what it is selling for today. That’s not what this diary is about. But if you want to talk about portfolio risk, this is a perfect example of “non-systemic” risk. 

Bear with me for an aside. A stock is considered a “risky asset.” It’s risky because it can go up or down. If it goes down too much, you can lose your investment. For every stock that exists, 50% of that risk is called “systemic” and the other 50% is called “non-systemic.” Systemic risk affects all stocks simultaneously, like if a law or taxes change.  Non-systemic risk is unique to a company. Patents, location, and personnel, etc, make up the non-systemic risk. And TSLA shares a CEO with a non-publicly traded company. So it certainly looks like it is suffering the risk of a the bad publicity generated from Musk’s civil intransigence. By the way, you can’t diversify away systemic risk, but you can diversify from non-systemic risk by simply adding another stock to your investment portfolio. Different location, patents, CEO, etc. That’s how (and why) diversification works.
 

At any rate, the point is that Musk is beyond redemption but will remain one of the richest person in the world until he dies. That’s just the way it is.

*It is widely reported that Musk didn’t fund all of Twitter himself, so he doesn’t face all the potential loss himself.

Let's have a conversation: Should Biden announce he is (or is not) running in 2024?

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I was at a dinner party on Wednesday night and the conversation turned to the next presidential election. Although this was a room full of Democratic voters, everyone was in agreement that Biden should announce that he is not running for re-election. Mind you, this was before the Special Council was named in his now mini-scandal of having in his possession classified documents. I was on the fence about this until I heard him talking this morning at a press conference with Japan PM Fumio Kishida. He sounded so friggin’ tired and uninspired. 

Let me be clear: I am so glad that Biden beat Trump as that is expressly what he set out to do. And although we have fun with Dark Biden — mainly because he has gotten so much done — I don’t think that meme will maintain any semblance of meaning in the next 2 years. Do we really expect any major legislation to pass going forward? I for one, do not.

I think the Democratic Party has a deep bench of talent and it is time to allow them to shine. If Biden should announce that he is not running, that should take the wind out of the sails that he is trying to knee-cap his political opponents vis-a-vis the Department of Justice. Allow the GOP to self destruct and allow our leaders to come forth and be recognized. 
 

What are your thoughts about this?


Updated - Katy Perry Breaks Down in Tears. "Our Country Has Failed Us!"

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UPDATE: Tuesday, Feb 28, 2023 · 10:08:57 PM +00:00·BayAreaKen

Nicole Wallace on her MSNBC show just now addressed the issue of mass shootings at schools and how many surviving kids are now adults and popping up in ways we may not have expected. The Michigan State University student who was also a survivor of Sandy Hook is one. Another is the young man, Trey Louis, on American Idol. And then she showed the video I have below. Be sure to watch if you’ve missed it.

Ever since my daughter started musical theater 16 years ago (and really, a couple years before that), my wife and I started watching American Idol together. We’ve watched every season since season three. In case you’re unaware, the current season is their twenty-first. We have immensely enjoyed the show, especially as a family. It truly is the one show we pause to discuss, while it’s happening. We always have our favorite contestants and root loudly for them. We even vote on a weekly basis. It’s the rare show that brings us closer to one another.

I can understand that the complaints some may have of how mean some of the former judges comments have been (I’m looking at you Simon Cowell), but since the show ported from Fox to ABC, it has been so much better. The three judges, Lionel Richie, Luke Bryan, and Katy Perry are kind. They instruct and provide meaningful advice to those they are judging. They truly want the contestants to grow into better performers. One of the hallmarks of the show are the personal stories the contestants bring. The close relatives they’ve lost or personal breakdowns and crisis that they are trying to overcome. I guess I’m a sucker for that kind of thing. By the end of the season, you do really feel you know who they are.

Last night, something happened that I haven’t seen before. One of the contestants Trey Louis, a 21 year old mattress salesman from Santa Fe, TX struck a positive note with a heart rendering version of “Stone” by Whiskey Myers (video and lyrics below). Responding to Luke Bryan’s question, “Why are you doing Idol,” Louis responded by being influenced by being in “Art Room 1” at Santa Fe High School in 2018 when a young man came into Art Room 2 and shot and killed 8 of his classmates and 2 of the teachers, and then made his way to Art Room 1. It was the most emotional scene I’ve ever witnessed on the show.

As the judges were processing what Louis said, Katy Perry completely broke down. And then, through tears she shouted out, “Our country has (expletive) failed us! This is not OK! You should be singing here because you love music! Not because you had to go through that (expletive). You didn’t have to lose... friends. I hope that you remind people that we have to change, because, you know what? I’m scared too."

My daughter, now 24, was with us last night when this was aired. We were all crying. We ended up talking about it for about an hour. About how she also had active shooting drills in her school and how this is something we simply didn’t worry about when we were growing up. 

I post this here, today, because perhaps, in a tiny way, this may wake some people up to not love their guns so much. American Idol is amazingly popular in the southern states of this country and most often, the winner of the show hails from that region.  One can hope.

Watch the video:
 

Lyrics to “Stone” by Whiskey Myers

The night is my companion
And the highway is my home
Got me seeking for one last beacon
Every single place I roam
They say Jesus was a poor man
I guess I wish I had a little more him in me
Make it easier going on living
Heart ache and misery
Sweet, sweet heart of mine I'm going to break again a million times
Is this true or gone
Have you turned to stone?
Well I guess I got my bottle
I still hold it all the time
But it keeps me smiling and singing
Helps me fall asleep a little bit better at night
They say life is like a dagger
Backstage is full of parasites
They love you and drain of everything you own
Just to feel better about their life
Sweet, sweet heart of mine I'm going to break again a million times
Is this true or gone?
OR Have you turned to stone?
Sweet, sweet heart of mine I'm going to break again a million times
Is this true or gone?
Sweet, Sweet love of mine I'm going to break again a million times
Is it true or gone?
Have you turned to stone?

To find out more about the Santa Fe High School Shooting, click here.

I will not be watching CNN this evening. (w/ poll)

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Just as I don’t watch his rally’s, I have no intention of watching Trump fumble around on a CNN stage tonight and continue to lie to the American people. 

At this point, his malignant narcissism is so acute, he has no grip on reality. Do you remember the movie Inside/Out from Pixar? If you haven’t seen it, I *highly* recommend doing so because it’s one of the most sophisticated dramas I have ever seen. And, it’s delightful! In it, they deal with the inner working of human emotions and memories. Memories are represented in animate form by different color balls and stored in various parts of the brain. In this scene below, you can see how the brain needs to make room for new memories by getting rid of old memories. You can see the character/emotion Joy (voiced by the wonderful Amy Poehler) is holding and protecting several “core” memories of the adolescent girl who is her charge. This is a short clip, but you’ll get the point…

 

I began to wonder a few years ago if Donald Trump is purposefully and willfully ignoring his memories or if he truly doesn’t have them anymore. I have no idea which is more accurate, but I’m not sure it matters. He is fundamentally incapable of telling the truth. He’s newsworthy only because he was the President of the United States and as Liz Cheney says, represents a clear and present danger to the future of our country. I, too, wish he’d go away, but here we are.

I am not upset that CNN is having a town hall with him. News organizations are designed to get our leaders on the record. I have no doubt, after yesterday’s jury verdict finding that indeed, the former President is in fact, a sexual predator, that subject will come up. But honestly, do you expect him to now admit he knows E Jean Carroll? Or admit to it? It’s all just lies. 

So go ahead CNN. Broadcast the former Liar-in-Chief. And for the love of all that is good in this world, have a panel assembled to call him out on these lies afterwards. But you are not going to rope me into watching.  And I hope you all don’t, either.
 

No, Your Jewish Friends Are Not Ok.

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Today has been a hard day for me. An undercurrent of disorientation and discomfort set in my mind. I didn’t know why I was short with people. But from morning to evening, I just kept getting more and more angry. And now, I have finally connected the dots.

I am stunned by both the overwhelming news coming out of Israel and also the depraved indifference I have experienced at that same news. I have spoken to two people today that were quite unaware that the largest loss of Jewish life since the Holocaust occurred just a few days ago. And when they heard the news (as I showed them the newspaper headlines) and given the reason for this killing, “wow, that’s terrible” were the perfunctory words that came out of their mouths. And 10 seconds later, they were on to other things, because you know, life goes on.

Today is the Global Day of Jihad, according to the former Hamas chief, who wants to call on all Muslims to kill Jews today, wherever they are in the world. Last night, parents were demanding to know what their local schools were doing to keep their children safe. I have received 3 emails from my synagogue today about increased security, and because it’s Friday, that we should feel free to participate in our weekly Shabbat service from the comfort of our homes. New York and Los Angeles police departments are on heightened alert for danger and escalation.

On September 11, 2001, the United States was the victim of terrorist attacks. Shock, sadness, fear, and anger. These were felt by practically every American, and indeed a great percentage of the world. We were in effect, unified. Today, it seems very much different. I read more anti-Semitic tropes as the Palestinians are being subjugated by the Israeli government. Forced to live a miserable life at the end of a tank’s turret. Surely, there is a humanitarian solution out there to bring us all together and recognize that we are better united than we are divided. But since time immemorial, Jews have been the scapegoat for the world. Easy to pick on because largely, we keep to ourselves, I guess. To be honest, I don’t understand that hatred. It never felt justified to me.

The first time I have ever experienced fear for being Jewish was my freshman year of college. I was working in a bank, and an older customer who shared my last name asked me “Has it happened to you, yet?” I had no idea what he was talking about. He re-asked if the hatred and vitriol for being Jewish, has it come my way. “No,” was all I said. But it shook me up. Six years later, an anti-Semitic classmate of mine in business school was talking trash in the locker room of our gym. He said, that he’d “Jew them down,” over some such thing that I can’t recall. I told him that I was Jewish and didn’t appreciate his words. This guy was ex-navy and had muscles on top of muscles. He was about 6’3”. At best, I’m 5’7. He didn’t apologize or recognize his hate. He just mumbled something. I dropped my towel and I put my arms out. I’m standing stark naked in front of him in all my glory. I said, “Here I am. Do your best.” He left me alone. But I was shaking for weeks after.  One time, on the campaign trail, when I knocked on someone’s door, I handed the man who answered my flyer. “Ken Rosenberg for City Council.” He took it from my hand, wrinkled it up, and stepped out of his front door and onto the porch. He said, “Rosenberg. You a Jew?” I said “Yes. And I don’t need your vote.” I couldn’t continue canvassing for a few hours, and to this day, the hairs on the back of my neck still stand up when I remember that event.

Terrorism works. It makes people afraid to live their lives and do the things that are ordinary and normal. I had a guy once use a fake gun (really, just his fingers) and point it at me. He was arrested for “terrorist activities.” As a country, we still are reacting to 9/11 in the way we govern, the USA Patriot Act is still in existence, and we still have to take our shoes off to board an airplane. We feel off-kilter, but it is the new normal. The kibbutz that was attacked is no longer. It had been there for 70 years. It was a site of a massacre. Hostages were taken, and some are confirmed dead already. It’s barbaric.

What is the proper response? As I was leaving my gym today, a guy I have known for years came up to me and said that “Hamas has to be exterminated.” I received a text from a former boss today saying, “I’m thinking of you and your family.” A lifelong friend reached out offering me words of care and comfort, as if this has happened to me, personally. And he is essentially right. There are approximately 7.6 million Jewish people in the United States, or about 2.4% of the population. In the world, we are about 16.1 million or .2% of the 8 billion souls on Earth. We’re a tiny group. Should we fight to exterminate another group? At the moment, for me, the answer is a resounding yes. Will this, plus the Russia/Ukraine war bring the United States and most of Europe into another World War? Time will let us know, but the odds have increased.

I realize that I don’t understand that magnitude of what happened in Israel. But I know that in my lifetime, things will never be the same. And I fear that things will get a whole lot worse before there is an ease, a comfort, and a peace.

I am still angry.

Your Money, Your Risk: Fraud is Real

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I have worked as a Wealth Advisor for a major Wall Street firm for 22 years. Never in that time have I seen the volume of fraudulent attempts at stealing my client’s money as I have within the past few months. In this short diary, I just wanted to give a few tips of what to look for and how you can protect yourself.

As long as there has been money, there have been people trying to steal it. Cons come in many forms and the owners of money (regardless of the amount) need to be vigilant in protecting it. One client of mine, 74 years of age, had over $650k stolen from him in a crazy crypto scam. I tried to get him to stop withdrawing from his retirement accounts to fund his new fascination in the get rich quick crypto market, but I couldn’t do it. It’s hard to get someone, who responds in sane and rational answers to questions attempting to reveal duress, influence, or declining mental acuity. I can’t stop a person from spending their money. In his case, an unscrupulous “salesman” duped him into a fake account and absconded with his money. The first two deposits of $50k were real, the rest was a ruse. In another case, one of my clients (age 63) wanted to withdraw over $150k when she has never taken out more than $5k at a time. When I simply asked what this large withdrawal was about (over 50% of her account value), she couldn’t give me a straight answer. I asked her plainly if she was being manipulated or if she felt threatened. She then yelled at me to give her her money. If ever there was a tell, that would be it. I was able to stall the withdrawal over two weeks and just today, she revealed that her life was being threatened by two actors who were draining her accounts. That is, she felt she had no choice. She filed a police report and now has documentation about what has been happening to her. It was/is chilling.

Other scams involve a real transaction, like the purchase of a house. Someone electronically steals the identity of the buyer of the house, and right before the money has to change hands, calls a staff member of the buyer’s bank and gets the money wired to a different place. So the bank/financial institution has been given a head’s up that a large transaction is about to occur, they aren’t surprised when the call comes in. The money is let go and it is gone. The owner of the account finds out in horror the next day when their account is all but depleted.

And this speaks nothing about online hacking and electronic invasion of accounts. Like the time one of my clients (72) got a text that something was wrong with her account and to call a number. She did. The man was kind and “knew what he was talking about” and got her to allow him into her computer because “it would be easier for him to solve the problem.” As he got into her computer, with her on the phone, he installed a virus and the next day, all of her money was gone from her bank.

What can you do? The first thing you should do is make sure your banking passwords are secure and changed periodically. I recommend a password generation program so you don’t even know what it is. And double factor authentication is a must for any electronic communication with a financial institution. The second thing is encryption. Never ever send a statement or a tax form through an unsecure email. Your financial institution should have methods of uploading or downloading sensitive documents securely. Thirdly, go electronic with your documents. No more snail mail. Mail box theft is rampant and they get more than your bank statements. Make sure your mailbox has a lock. And for the love of god, don’t let someone into your computer. Stop and call the bank you do business with and ask them if they notice something is wrong. Chances are very high, they will confirm you’re ok, but that is a scammer you’re talking to.

If your financial institution allows it (and they should, otherwise, find a new one) provide a “trusted contact” to your profile with the bank. We are trained to pick up on verbal cues of stress and unusual requests. If we could call someone -— your trusted contact -— we could ask if you’re ok. The trusted contact doesn’t have access to your accounts. They do not have a power of attorney over your accounts. They just have the responsibility to communicate if the owner of the funds is ok or if they believe something suspicious is happening.

Do you know the cybersecurity capabilities of the banks you do business with? Have you ever asked? My company spends more on cybersecurity than our four largest competitors combined. Our cybersecurity chief used to work at the NSA and has brought many many colleagues over to my firm. Our policy is that if there is a breach to our systems and, through no fault of your own, a bad actor steals your money,  you will be refunded in full. I’m told that using your phone app is more secure than using your desktop, for online banking needs. Encryption is constantly being randomized on the apps. I’m not a technologist, so I can’t speak to why this is, but I trust my cybersecurity department and their expertise in the matter.

If you can, subscribe to a credit security service so that any new credit card or credit check will be communicated to you. My firm offers this service for free to qualifying clients. Also, to the extent you can, work with a firm or an advisor who gets to know you. Relationships matter and relying only on your device is not sufficient to keep you safe.

I do not mean to be an alarmist (apologies if someone reading this is freaking out right now), but people are out there trying to separate your from your money. Please take it seriously. 

Now, back to politics. 
 

The Stock Market by Political Party: Democrats Win

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As a Wealth Advisor, I hear a lot of excuses for people not to invest. And when it’s political season (especially in a Presidential cycle), the reasons people use to justify their behavior is heightened due to emotional reasons, not necessarily logic or history. In this diary, I hope to help give you data and facts. This is not a recommendation to invest. If anything, I want the folks here at Daily Kos to be validated in what we think: that the economy and stock markets typically do better under Democratic leadership. As always, past performance does not guarantee future results.

The following is a synopsis from a research report of my firm, Morgan Stanley.
 

  • Over the long term, market performance is more closely correlated with the
    business cycle than political party control.
  • Historically, real GDP (gross domestic product...or the output of the US economy) growth tended to be stronger during presidential election years than in other years. When assessing by political party, economic growth and the S&P 500 Index was stronger, on average, under Democratic administrations.
  • While political outcomes may contribute to industry regulation and profitability,
    fundamentals may be more influenced by the business and economic cycle.
  • Investor fears around general election outcomes may often be misplaced due to
    individual policy bias.
    While we acknowledge the occurrence of delayed policy
    implementation and coincident data, “conventional wisdom” often does not align
    with market results regarding the combination of policy, business cycle and
    valuations.

When analyzing historical data at the intersection of economics, markets and political cycles, we see distinct trends arise in presidential versus nonpresidential election years.

Chart1.jpg

Chart2.jpg

When assessing underlying economic indicators, average year-over-year real GDP growth in presidential election years since 1942 surpasses nonelection years by approximately 0.24%.
While not the singular determinant, presidential outcomes are correlated with GDP performance in the months prior to an election. According to the Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions, a 5% increase in GDP results in a corresponding 6% gain in incumbent vote share. This relationship may support the economic upside experienced in election years relative to nonelection years and underscores the important role of the economy in campaign messaging.


Once a president is sworn in, investors closely monitor economic policies. Assessing the average annual real GDP growth of all years of a presidential term by political party beginning in 1928, we see that Democratic term real GDP growth outperforms Republican term real GDP growth by
2.7% (see Exhibit 3).
 

Chart3.jpg

Exhibit 9 shows the S&P 500 average excess returns for Democratic and Republican presidential election years. Overall, markets underperformed during Republican regimes, with excess returns down during the first two years in office. Conversely, market performance under a Democratic
administration saw positive excess returns over the same period.


Evaluating S&P 500 average annual returns for all years since 1928 by political party, Democratic presidencies report higher returns than Republican presidencies by more than six percentage points (see Exhibit 10).

Chart4.jpg

Chart5.jpg

When considering the outcomes of an election cycle, it's not only important to consider who controls the White House, but also which party controls the House of Representatives and the Senate. This is a critical element when looking to policy as an input for investment strategies, as Congress is in
many ways more influential than the president when formulating a tax agenda or fiscal policy, for example. As detailed in Exhibits 13 and 14, Democratic control of the executive and legislative branches was more positive for markets within the first two years in office than during a
Republican sweep, with value, growth, small-cap and large cap stocks all performing well during the 12 and 24 months after Inauguration Day.

Chart6.jpg

Chart7.jpg

This dynamic does not change much when the House and Senate are controlled by different parties. Value and growth stocks again reported greater average returns within the first year when a Democrat held the White House and Congress was split, 22.9% and 26.1%, respectively. Similarly, under a Democratic president and a split Congress, small-cap and large-cap stock performance was stronger, at 30.9% and 25.0%, respectively.

The business cycle is more important to market performance than the political party in the White House. That said, investors are likely to become concerned not only about broad market  performance, but also with the strength of various asset classes under different public policy and regulatory regimes. While it is natural in some cases to assume that the personal or professional
background of a president may be associated with specific asset class returns, investors are commonly mistaken.  


For example, one could easily assume that oil would do best under President George W. Bush, a Republican (R), given his oil industry background. However, oil posted its strongest historical performance under his successor, President Barack Obama, a Democrat (D). While the past does not predict the future, it may serve as a guide.
 

Chart8.jpg

Investment Conclusion
The business cycle is more relevant to market performance than political party. However, we also observe that, from a macroeconomic lens, GDP growth tends to be stronger during presidential election years than in other years and appears more robust under Democratic presidential control. Additionally, we saw that the US dollar exhibited higher volatility and tended to appreciate surrounding election years. 


When assessing equity returns, we found that Democratic administrations reported stronger S&P 500 average annual returns for all years in office when compared with GOP administrations. 




To read a diary I published about protecting yourself from financial fraud:  click here
 

Supreme Court to take up Trump's Immunity...in late April.

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This is bad news for the voters of America. The Supreme Court has slow rolled this decision. They could have simply accepted the Appellate Court’s extremely strong ruling that he of course is not immune from all accountability for breaking laws while President.

Given the delay, and the likely further delay in actually releasing their verdict, they are in effect vetoing the DoJ’s claims that American citizens have a right to know if this candidate is in fact, guilty. That is an important variable, wouldn’t you think?

This is more politicization from this right wing extreme court.

Here is the Washington Post article:
www.washingtonpost.com/...



The Supreme Court will review Donald Trump’s unprecedented claim that he is shielded from prosecution for actions taken while in office, further delaying the former president’s D.C. trial on charges of conspiring to overturn his 2020 election loss to remain in power.

 

Trump’s pretrial proceedings in D.C. will remain on hold until a ruling is issued, putting the Supreme Court in the politically fraught position of influencing the timing of a federal election-obstruction trial for the leading Republican presidential candidate.

The brief unsigned order issued Wednesday said the justices were not “expressing a view on the merits” of the case and would consider only the question of whether and to what extent a former president has "immunity from criminal prosecution for conduct alleged to involve official acts during his tenure in office.

Trump’s legal strategy is not to defend himself. It is to delay. This plays right into his strategy. I was hoping for better from the Supreme Court. Why? I have no idea. They have shown us who they are.

Dark days indeed.

Nicolle Wallace interviews Rachel Maddow. Rachel is stunning. A transcript and a must read.

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The day after Super Tuesday, Nicolle Wallace on MSNBC hosted guest Rachel Maddow to talk about where we are with the stakes of our November presidential election. Rachel said things that I didn't expect, but am so glad she did. I have transcribed Rachel's side of the conversation (read below). Be sure to watch the video for the complete back-and-forth between the two. This is fascinating, frightening, and a little hopeful. And is super important.  And VOTE.

Transcript written by me. Excuse any errors. I tried to make it easy to read...listening is a different skill, lol.

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There are two different things going on in the two parties [Democrats vs Republicans]. The Democrats are renominating an incumbent president who’s been a very successful president. Not the world’s most popular president, but successful. Lot’s of bipartisan legislation, all the stuff he wanted to get done he has gotten done.

 

We have this best in class economic recovery post-covid of all the big countries in the world. Everything he’s set out to do, he’s done. Joe Biden got in there saying, “Listen, I’m going to be the President for everybody and expect all my big legislative stuff to be bi-partisan,” and that is exactly what he’s done. So the Democratic Party is like marching down the middle lane of Normalville, right?
 

The Republican Party is engaged in a different project. And there is a reason that nobody in the Republican Party cares that the Republican controlled congress isn’t making any policy, say. There is a reason nobody knows what Donald Trumps policy is on Gaza, say. There’s a reason nobody in the Republican Party is contesting what is going on with Joe Biden because they have a different idea what we should be doing on infrastructure. There is just no governing talk happening at all in the Republican Party. It is instead that America is a disaster, America is in decline, America is being laughed at, America is humiliated, and there must be extreme measures taken to fundamentally change the course of the country or we’re all going to die.

Those are just two different things. And what the latter thing is, the reason you’ve been doing these series on autocracy [Rachel says about Nicole Wallace] is that it’s not the project of a governing party, [it is instead] a project of a party trying to get rid of a form of government that we have … and install something else.

 

[Nicolle Wallace talks for a bit, now back to Rachel]


Because the Republican party is engaged in a group decision that they are trying to change what the United States is. Right? I mean, if you want to support the idea of America as a democracy, we are a multi-racial pluralistic society with lots of different kinds of people and economic freedom. And all of the other civil society things that support us being a big complex society…it’s really hard to have for centuries, this pluralistic democracy. There are very few of these in the history of the world and if you don’t want that, if you don’t want everybody to have a say, for us to decide what we’re going to do based on democratically held free and fair elections, then you have a party here [that supports getting rid of democracy].

I mean when Trump used violence and fraud and intimidation to try to throw out election results and stay in power anyway, the response of the Republican Party was not to be horrified. For the most part, the response of the elected and leading Republicans was to figure out how they could help him get away with it. McConnell, when he orchestrated the acquittal of Trump in the Senate so Trump would not be banned from ever holding federal office again because he said the courts will take care of it. The courts will not save us here.

 

The only thing that will save us here is if what I believe is the pro-democracy super majority in this country decides we’re not only going to stand up for democracy in the abstract by saying nice things about it, [rather] we’re going to use our democracy to stop this iteration of the Republican Party to get rid of it. The Republicans sort of have to not be counted on to do this themselves. There was a primary that didn’t work to oust Donald Trump. We saw Republicans on the courts who have lifetime tenure and therefore protected from the kinds of blow back that other politicians might be worried about, nevertheless get in line behind their partisan patrons. The Republican Party will not save us here. We cannot wait for the Republican Party to wake up. Nothing is going to happen inside the Republican Party other than efforts to get Donald Trump what he wants, which is to get rid of our form of government. The only way the country gets saved is if Republicans are blocked by the democratic process because Democrats win instead. That’s the only thing left to save us.

[Nicolle says some words, back to Rachel]

I mean, listen. I have always felt like — you know, I’m a liberal and as liberal as they come and always have been. But I’ve always felt like I had more in common with people who care about what happens to the country than people who don’t care, who are checked out, who don’t think it matters. Even if you have radically different ideas. There is nothing in which I agree with on Liz Cheney. If we both fish, I hate the way she fishes [laughter]. It’s absolutely everything. But if you care about the future of our country, that is grounds for us to work together. I do think we have to recognize after Super Tuesday, after Mitch McConnell today, no with Nikki Haley out of the race, and now with the Republican appointees on the courts doing what they have done at the highest court in the land, I really think we need to get clear about the fact the project of the Republican Party is to install a strong man form of government in the United States and get rid of democracy. And that is the project of electing Donald Trump. That is what the Republican Party is for now. And so if you have been part of the Republican Party, you have to recognize that that’s now the new project of your party. You may need to leave that party now in order to work with the rest of Americans who disagree with you on a lot of different things, but want our country to stay a democracy. We are just in that extreme a place.

 

[Nicolle talks, back to Rachel]

Listen, I feel like the reason I’ve been spending the last year and a half just reading history all the time is because what we’ve learned from history is there is no magic bullet. The courts don’t save you. No individual institution saves you. What people count on, what matters is for us to keep making the case. Explain how authoritarianism works. Explain why a strong man appeals sound great but aren’t a great idea. Explain what happens when democracies that used to be democracies gave that away and were never able to get it back. Just keep talking about what we know is true, and I believe in the American people that we are capable of learning, we are capable of reassessing what we know and I believe we are capable of repentance and redemption. I do. 

 

There is no other short cut.






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