That quote was by the Romney campaign’s Neil Newhouse.  Romney aides have said their most powerful weapon presently is the welfare ad criticizing President Obama for the work feature, claiming it discloses “new information.” The ad, and all of the subsequent claims about the work requirements, have been thoroughly and repeatedly debunked.  

Yet the Romney campaign forges ahead.

Four years ago, EVERY economic indicator of consequence was headed the wrong way.  Indicators we like to go up (stock market, employment, home sales, auto sales,  confidence) were headed down.  Starting this week, I'm going to be blogging a set of charts with explanation on economic data proving that we're headed the right direction.  I hope you find it helpful.

But let's start with this Daily Kos diary I wrote four years ago in September of 2008.  Re-live how it really was in that time period where our economy was grinding to a sudden halt.  The good news, I was lucky and got to keep my job.  And I'm better for it.   I'll see you below the orange cursive  sideways S&P (seriously, it looks like a sideways S&P which is completely appropriate for this diary!!) with my diary of old.

In April of 2001, I lost my job in the "dot-bomb" recession.  I was living in Silicon Valley and had had a few "silicon valley" type jobs (read:  I worked for technology companies), the most recent - at that time - was a start-up.  Due to the economic conditions worsening, my little startup lost its funding.  Instead of working for free, every employee decided to simply stop working there.  The company didn't really close, as much as it faded away through attrition.  A few weeks later, my son was scheduled to be born via a c-section.  But the company wasn't paying its health care premium which meant that I couldn't get COBRA coverage.  My wife's pregnancy was considered a pre-existing condition.  As such, we could get family health insurance, but it wouldn't cover the cost of the surgery my wife was going to have.  Luckily for us, our synagogue put us on their health care plan (we reimbursed them their costs) and we got coverage the night before the delivery.  

From April of 2001 to July of 2002, I was out of work.  We lost our house.  And in spite of having a fairly good resume and proper pedigree, I simply couldn't find work.  Jobs had simply vanished.  I remember one job interview where I was sitting at a table talking to the hiring manager, when the HR representative interrupted my interview to tell me the job requistion had been closed.  That was my final insult.  I decided to change careers.  So in July of 2002, I joined a Wall Street firm and became a "Financial Advisor" where, among other important things, I essentially manage other people's investments.  

One of the things that makes me good at my job is genuine empathy.  I still live in Silicon Valley and people around here are effected by economic doldrums -- just like the rest of the country (although we've certainly recovered faster than most).  When one of my clients lose a job, I help them recraft their resume and use my network to help them land on their feet again.   But as a Financial Advisor, I am asked frequently are things getting better, and where is the proof.  So I thought I'd submit this diary to present you with the graphs illustrating why and how things are improving.  I make no claims that if you are still unemployed that things are better ... for you.  But a rising tide lifts all boats.  Hopefully you will find your bliss sometime soon.  Follow me below the fleur de kos for the data and a bit of narrative.  I hope you find some reasons to be optimistic.

The best way I can describe Clinton's speech last night was transcendent.  It was similar in feeling to when I've been to a concert and the band members were on some fifth wave of groove and the audience was right there with them.  You know when you're having that experience that it is special and magical and that you crave more of it.  You don't want it to end.  That's what last night was like.

However, it wasn't that way for everyone.  I spent some time this morning collecting right-wing headlines and a few quotes.  I can summarize it all in two words:  sour grapes.  

Sometimes I get disappointed that, after an event like last night, not everyone is moved in the same way I am.  Then I snap out of it and realize that the fight must go on.  For your enjoyment, a sampling of right wing reactions:

We can take some solace in the fact that some of the big money from the Super-PACs, Karl Rove, Koch brothers, invisible donors, and so on are being pulled from presidential ads in swing states.  That’s the good news.  The bad is that it looks like it’s starting to be reallocated to Senate races around the country.

With Romney seemingly incapable of going a day without some kind of major gaffe and Obama’s path to re-election becoming clearer, we need to concentrate much of our GOTV efforts in holding the Senate.

One of the most important duties of the Senate, of course, is putting nominated judges on the bench.  If the President Obama is re-elected, but the Senate goes red, there will be few to any judges allowed to get through the process – including the Supreme Court justices we expect to retire in the next four years.  We already know that through the use of the filibuster and other procedural methods, the Republicans have stopped most of the president’s nominations.  

He said his is 13.9%.  Mine is closer to 30%.  He claims nearly half of Americans pay none.

Do you?  What is your rate?

I am his income demographic and I pay more in percentage than him.  So I must not be part of that 47% he was talking about.  He probably thinks I will vote for him because I make a living for a living.  

What a putz.   Vote Obama/Biden 2012

He said his is 13.9%.  He claims nearly half of Americans pay none.

Do you?  What is your rate?

I am his income demographic and I pay more in percentage than him.  Mine is closer to 30%.   So I must not be part of that 47% he was talking about.  He probably thinks I will vote for him because I make a living for a living.  

What a fool.   Vote Obama/Biden 2012

Donate to the Obama campaign here

Without new legislation, at the end of 2012, major changes are going to occur in our financial markets and economy due to the “fiscal cliff.” According to the Congressional Budget Office, this would cut the budget deficit from 7.3% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to 4% in 2013.  But even this understates the extent of the fiscal cliff since fiscal year 2013 includes three months before these changes take effect (fiscal 2012 ends at the end of this month).  On a calendar year basis, the projected drop in the deficit is closer to 3% of GDP.   This is too much too fast.

Before going any further, the basic math behind the federal budget needs to be understood.

First, the deficit is the gap between government spending and revenues in any one fiscal year.  Fiscal years run from October 1 of the prior year to September 30 of the current year and, as an approximation, the debt grows by the amount of the deficit each year.

Second, in measuring the impact of deficits and debts, we look at these numbers relative to GDP which is the overall output of goods and services in the economy.  The key issue, when it comes to fiscal sustainability, is the size of debt and deficits relative to the overall economy (or GDP).  

Third, in measuring the total debt, we look at what is known as “debt held by the public,” currently $11.2 trillion, rather than “total public debt subject to limit,” which currently amounts to $15.9 trillion.  “Debt held by the public” excludes money the federal government owes to its own trust funds, most notably, the Social Security trust fund.  This measure is the focus of most debt projections and is a better measure to use in assessing both the sustainability of debt and its impact on global financial markets.

From the mid-1980s to the year 2000, the fiscal situation improved substantially with only one recession, a strong stock market and the impact of the end of the Cold War on defense spending.  By 2000, the federal budget was in surplus and the debt/GDP ratio was falling rapidly.

Since then, America has experienced a series of shocks and slumps.  Two wars, two recessions, and two huge bear markets in stocks led to a surge in the deficit, as did attempts by both the Bush and the Obama administrations to “stimulate” the economy through tax cuts and increased government spending.  By fiscal 2009, the deficit had climbed to $1.416 trillion or 10.1% of GDP, with federal debt rising sharply.  

Over the last three years, the deficit has retreated somewhat, with the CBO estimating a deficit of $1.128 trillion, or 7.3% of GDP for the current fiscal year.  While this does represent some progress, estimates project the deficit would need to fall to below 4% of GDP in order for the debt to grow less quickly than GDP, thus stabilizing the debt/GDP ratio, albeit at a high level.

Congratulations MSNBC!!  Two nights in a row, in the coveted 25-54 age demographic, MSNBC beat Fox News in the number of viewers.

Huffpo has it here.

I’ll be interested (and delighted) to see this trend continue, but Rachel Maddow beat O’Reily AND Sean Hannity.  Lawrence O’Donnell beat van Susteren!  Two. Nights. In. A. Row!  

"The number one show in the demo on cable news is always, always "The O'Reilly Factor" unless there is some sort of unusual news event or huge booking."
But, on both Monday and Tuesday -- with neither a huge news event nor a huge booking -- MSNBC beat Fox News. Rachel Maddow's ratings in the demo on Tuesday were better than Bill O'Reilly's and Sean Hannity's. Lawrence O'Donnell's were better than Greta van Susteren's. Overall, MSNBC beat Fox News 575,000 to 526,000.

"The truth will out" -- Shakespeare

Welcome my fellow Americans to the liberal left.  We have cookies.

It’s delicious, isn’t it?  The subject line of this diary is really a headline on RedState.com.  A front page diary.  The meat of the post is that Republicans were duped in voting for the Budget Control Act.  And now, these same Republicans are “beclowning” themselves for its repeal.  

side note:  what does it mean to beclown yourself?  It doesn’t sound good, but I’m not sure it’s a word!

The diary has some choice quotes, like:

We all agree that the across-the-board nature of the sequester cuts to the military are dumb.  But they were enacted by the same dumb people who are pursuing its repeal.

I scour the conservative blogs, so you don't have to.

BigGovernment.com
WaaahhhhhhaahhhhhhhaaahhhWahhahhhahahha, er, ehem.

ToBeRight.com
SobSniffSobSobSniffSniff, phhtttttttt

RushLimbaugh.com
THEWORLDISCOMINGTOANDENDRUNFORTHEHILLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

TheAmericanconservatives.com
WhineWhineWhineWhineWhineWhineWhineWhineWhineWhineWhineWhineWhine

Redstate.com
ChestThumpHeadHangLowChestThump(abitlighterthistime)HeadHangLow, Oh.Who.Cares.

HumanEvents.com
ahhhhhhhhhhHHHHHHHHHFREAKOUT!

There's very little to say about this, but "wow."

Nate Silver's forecast for the president to be re-elected is now 81.9% probable (up 6.7% since September 19).  His "now-cast" is 97.8%!!!  Said another way, if the election was held today, his analysis predicts Romney with only a 2.2% chance of winning.  Can Romney go any lower?  Geesh, I'm not even running and I'm almost beating the guy.

See his page here.

Time to work on retaining the Senate, which Nate only predicts the Democrats will keep 51.7% to 48.3%.

GOTV!!!

Complacency Over

If there a silver lining to tonight’s debate it is this:  with all the good news about the polling in the past few weeks, with all the gaffes that the Romney campaign have kept making, and with the relatively lousy performance of our president tonight one thing is clear:  the election isn’t over yet.  No complacency.

If you’ve been thinking about volunteering, but were hesitant because you felt Team Obama didn’t need you, think again.

If you’ve been thinking about putting out that lawn sign (or affixing a bumper sticker), but have demurred because you didn’t want to be seen as too partisan, think again.

If you’ve been thinking about donating another few bucks, but didn’t think the campaign needed it, think again.

Because this thing just got more interesting.
So many diarists are making great and salient comments tonight.  But one thing is clear:  the election isn’t over yet.  Have I already said it?  Well let me say it again.  The election is not over yet.

Get. Out. The. Vote.
Volunteer
Advertise
Donate
Repeat

You've got to hand it to people in the San Francisco Bay Area.  We're simply not as tolerant as other parts of the country to let hatred stand.

Atherton, California is one of the most expensive zip codes in the United States.  The median home price was over $4,000,0000 in 2010, and I’m sure it’s higher than that now.   I did a quick search and found ten homes for sale right now for over $10,000,000, like this one.   It is home to such notable people as Meg Whitman, Charles Schwab, and Eric Schmidt.  So you’d expect it be an alcove of Republican voters; of 1%ers.  And you’d be right.  Atherton sticks out in the vote results as much more conservative than its neighbors of Menlo Park and Palo Alto.  And a conservative is as a conservative does.

Four years ago I sat on my couch and cried.  I was flanked by my two children, then 9 and 7, who were hugging me as they were not accustomed to dad crying.  Along with my wife, we were all watching as Barack Obama became the 44th president of the United States.  An outcome that I had worked so hard to help achieve.  An outcome that didn’t come without a little family sacrifice as I was out of the house for many hours phone banking and trying hard to get out the vote in swing states across the country.  Through the tears of joy, I told my family that they were living through one of the largest moments in American history:  the election of our country’s first African-American president.  

As a financial advisor, it is my job to help steer my client’s investments (most of it IRAs and other retirement funds) safely through the turbulent markets.  Of course, 2008 was the most turbulent year in  our lifetimes.  So the promise of change and hope that our young president was offering was a welcomed elixir.  Here was a transformative man, one capable of bringing the country together.  I knew it. My kids knew it.  It simply felt…special.

If I had the opportunity to ask Mitt Romney a question, ah-la the Townhall debate format, face-to-face, this is what I'd ask:

Mr. Romney, how would your very own tax plan effect your very own taxes?

Lost in the hyperbole about tax rates and holding them steady or lowering these and raising those, lost in the hubbub of closing loopholes and offering everybody a certain dollar amount of automatic deductions is this: Mitt Romney wants dividends and capital gains to be taxed at 0%.  Nada.  Zippo.  Nothing.

Let's look at the math.

I got to say, I like the new stump speech.  It artfully calls Romney out on all his bullshit flip flopping without the president out and out calling him a liar.

And it has the added benefit of being funny.

I'm not liking some of the polling, however.  I still don't think our man will lose, but damn it, this is getting "too close." 

Time to hit the phones again!

GOTV!

I live in the San Francisco Bay Area.  An area known throughout the world for the high cost of living, especially in our real estate prices.  When realtors drive prospective buyers around who are moving to this area from somewhere else in the country, they commonly bring a box of tissues as the buyer inevitably breaks down into tears for fear they'll never be able to afford anything like what they can get where they come from.

When the economy melted in 2008, we also suffered declining values for our homes.  If the adage is that all real estate is local, then this will prove it.   I remember thinking I'd get X amount for selling my home in 2007.  When I had to sell it in 2009, I ended up getting X minus about 15%.  Ouch.

I looks like I should have waited.  I received a post card from a realtor who lives in my old neighborhood in Mountain View California.  This is a city north of San Jose, south of San Francisco, adjacent to Palo Alto and is the headquarter city for Google, Intuit, Microsoft's Bay Area campus, Facebook (formerly) and LinkedIn (formerly).  Among others.  You can image home prices haven't stayed down.

Since the Bay Area is a leading indicator, look for these type of upward pressure in price in your neighborhood in the near future.  

About a year and a half ago, Chick-Fil-A joined the Chamber of Commerce in Mountain View, California.  This is notable only because there wasn’t a Chick-Fil-A in the area.  Mountain View is located in the heart of Silicon Valley which is known to be part of the greater San Francisco Bay Area.  Naturally, this entire area, especially towns located on the west side of the bay, is quite progressive.  

I am board member of the Chamber of Commerce.  One of our duties is to approve new members to the organization.  When this came up, it was well before the recent national brouhaha caused by their Chief Operating Officer, Dan Cathy due to his quote about same-sex marriage that those who "have the audacity to define what marriage is about" were "inviting God's judgment on our nation.” No, back in early 2011, the only real controversy about Chick-Fil-A was really a) is their food healthier than say, a McDonalds, and b) do they really contribute (as an organization) to anti-gay causes?  

I had an interesting conversation with my father-in-law last night.  The conversation went very well, but I need your help to finish it.  Before I go on, let me describe the context:

-    He is a retired physician, my mother-in-law a retired (private school) teacher
-    They are affluent by most definitions of that word, but don’t live that way.
-    When I married his daughter nearly 17 years ago, both he and his wife voted Republican
-    The combination of my constant input to the insanity of the GOP’s politics and the witnessing of that insanity has made it so the last two presidential election cycles, they have voted for Obama.
-    Regardless of that, they voted for Proposition 8 in 2008.
-    They don’t understand why we need to reform our immigration laws.
-    He is very much open to influence and persuasion (meaning:  he isn’t an ideologue)
-    We never yell about politics, but we don’t always agree.  They are the kind of conversations you wish you could have with your weird Uncle Joe from Fresno who is a Tea Party and NRA member

So last night was my daughter’s 14th birthday and she wanted to have her grandparents over for dinner (they’re very close).  As normal, I’m sitting next to my father-in-law.  Near the end of the meal, we start talking about the stock market (I work as an investment advisor for a Wall Street firm…this topic ALWAYS comes up), the fiscal cliff, etc, and as you might assume, the discussion quickly moves into politics.